The Impact of external factors on housing prices in Lithuania

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Būstas; Prognozė; Būsto kainos; Būsto rinka; Išoriniai veiksniai; Housing; Prediction; Housing prices; Housing market; External factors.

ENPurpose – This paper aims to identify the external factors that have the greatest impact on housing prices in Lithuania. Design/methodology/approach – The econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, linear and non-linear regression modes, threshold regression and autoregressive distributed lag models. The analysis is performed based on 137 external factors that can be grouped into macroeconomic, business, financial, real estatemarket, labourmarket indicators and expectations. Findings – The research reveals that housing price largely depends on macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product growth and consumer spending. Cash and deposits of households are the most important indicators from the group of financial indicators. The impact of financial, business and labour market indicators on housing price varies depending on the stage of the economic cycle. Practical implications – Real estate market experts and policymakers can monitor the changes in external factors that have been identified as key indicators of housing prices. Based on that, they can prepare for the changes in the real estatemarket better and take the necessary decisions in a timelymanner, if necessary. Originality/value – This study considerably adds to the existing literature by providing a better understanding of external factors that affect the housing price in Lithuania and let predict the changes in the real estate market. It is beneficial for policymakers as it lets them choose reasonable decisions aiming to stabilize the real estate market. [From the publication]