European power triad and Lithuanian security cooperation

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Bendradarbiavimas saugumo srityje; Europos valdžios triada; European power triad; Lithuania; Security cooperation.

ENThe current NATO posture is in line with Lithuania’s desire for a tough joint European stance vis-à-vis Russia, but the European power triad holds a sizeable constituency sceptical of this posture, threatening to undo the fine balance between Europe’s economic and military security interests. In this context, can Lithuania still afford to rely primarily on the U.S. to nudge NATO along to shore up the defences of its Eastern European borders? A dilemma before the security and foreign policy establishment is complex and manifold – rather than a binary choice. On the one hand, sliding along with the increasingly challenging American posture to Transatlantic security, while responding ad-hoc to the European moves, risks leaving the country short-changed, should an abrupt crisis require a forceful response. On the other hand, a pronounced shift and recalibration towards European powers would require substantively new strategy and long-term vision, including potential doctrinal changes and reassessing the defence acquisitions strategy. In between the two extremes of little changes to a new posture, the on-thego response options balancing the abovementioned strategic partnerships require extremely delicate management of the available diplomatic, financial, and military resources, and present an immense challenge of strategic vision and consistency.In an attempt to inform this discussion, sections two through four offer a brief overview of Lithuania’s historic and current security cooperation with each of the pillars of the European power triad, contextualizing and comparing the security and foreign policy directions. Section five elaborates on the non-military aspects of the security dilemmas at hand, looking at the identifiable policy direction and public sentiment in the European power triad, and the challenges this potentially implies for future cooperation with Lithuania. The article seeks to convey the current Lithuanian and partner-state views on the success, significance and future prospects of security cooperation – reflecting both the public and expert views, – and offer some broad policy recommendations for the way ahead. Nevertheless, these insights are offered with intellectual humility, appreciating that significant information concerning these matters continues to be held informally and may not be available in the unclassified environment. [Extract, p. 152]

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