Ekonominių procesų valdymas: grįžtamasis ryšys ekonomikoje

LTStraipsnyje pateiktas naujas požiūris į ekonominių procesų valdymą, akcentuojant grįžtamąjį ryšį ekonomikoje. Požiūris grindžiamas nauja holistine bendrųjų procentų idėja ir iš jos kylančiu soties (užpildymo) fenomenu. Parodoma, kad viena silpniausių vietų ekonomikoje yra neteisingas finansinio burbulo supratimas, teigiamo grįžtamojo ryšio nepakankamas ištyrimas ar netinkamas jo taikymas. Nustatyta, kad neigiamas grįžtamasis ryšys virsta teigiamu esant soties efektui, kurį lemia rinkos finansinis prisotinimas. Parodoma, kad atsiradus teigiamam grįžtamajam ryšiui formuojasi ekonominis burbulas. Pateikiamas patikslintas finansinio burbulo apibrėžimas. Taikant fenomenologinį metodą daroma prielaida, kad minios efektą gali paaiškinti susiformavęs soties efektas ir teigiamas grįžtamasis ryšys. Atliktas tyrimas atskleidė, kad ekonominių procesų valdymo analizėje, orientuojantis į bendruosius procentus (bendrąsias palūkanas), atsiskleidė nauji jo aspektai, leidę geriau paaiškinti teigiamą grįžtamąjį ryšį, prisotinimą, soties paradoksą, finansinius burbulus, infliaciją ir kitus ekonominius reiškinius. Darbe taikyta sisteminė ir lyginamoji mokslinių šaltinių analizė, modeliavimas, ekonominė logistinė analizė ir sintezė, fenomenologinis tyrimų metodas. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Bendrieji procentai; Ekonominių procesų valdymas; Grįžtamasis ryšys ekonomikoje; Palūkanos; Economic process management; Feedback in the economy; General interest; Interest; Management of economic processes; Overall percentage; Positive economic feedback.

ENThis article is based on a newly discovered general interest model. The model is based on the paradox of market saturation. This model allows research of other economic phenomena, and provides a deeper understanding of economic mechanisms. Further analysis is grounded on the assumption that economics does not differ from other exact sciences. Economic science can be analysed with the same principles that are used in physics, but those principles have to be adapted to the specific needs of economic science. The biggest problem in economic science today is that major research is limited to observational or descriptive types. This means that ways of research are limited to correlation and other statistical data analyses. There is a lack of focus on the behaviour of economic phenomena and economic mechanics. That is why we see little research on understanding aspects such as capital saturation, financial bubbles and cycles, overproduction and inflation. This makes scientists change their attitudes and investigation paradigms. This article focuses on positive economic feedback, and its transformation from a negative phase to a positive one. The influence of capital saturation phenomena is emphasised in the research. This allows us to improve the management of economic processes. The new method of analysis is based on a new concept of general interest and financial saturation modelling. The study shows that positive feedback exists in investment practice, and has a major role in the process. Understanding the impact on the economy of positive feedback is essential for understanding investment processes. In this article, the holistic nature of the term general interest is explained together with the paradox of financial saturation. This allows us to understand the nature of financial bubbles, and to move forward to a deeper understanding of the influence of inflation on this process.The study shows that positive feedback allows the formation of financial bubbles. The definition of a financial bubble was created by applying a phenomenological method that combines theoretical and empirical levels. It sounds something like: a financial bubble is a large-scale and rapid price increase that is created by investment cycles that have a pattern of positive financial feedback triggered by an increase in returns in a deficit market together with the financial saturation effect. This definition explains the financial bubble as economic resonance, and lowers the importance of behavioural elements in explanations of the nature of the financial bubble. This approach also allows us to explain what the fundamental price is. The term fundamental price presents the price that is set in an oversupplied and financially not saturated market. The article also stresses the importance of a behavioural approach, especially in investment management. The crowd effect is used in the research process. The phenomenological method allows us to explain crowd effects by using the interaction between positive feedback and financial saturation. This allows us to understand that the financial bubble and the crowd effect are the outcome of the interaction between saturation and positive feedback. This paper shows that the use of general interest allows us to understand the economic process better. It allows us to explain the nature of financial bubbles in economic systems. [From the publication]