Прогноз миграций и динамики населения в странах Балтии до 2095 года

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Baltijos šalys (Baltic states); Eurostatas; Gyventojų dinamika; Migracija; Migracijos prognozės; Populiacija; Prognozė; Baltic states; Eurostat; Forecast; Migration; Migration forecasting; Population; Population dynamics; The Baltic States.

ENThe aim of the study is the forecast of the dynamics of fertility, mortality, migration and population to 2095 in Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). The demographic outlook is one of the most complex scientific problems, as it implies forecasting various characteristics of natural and mechanical movement of the population who are affected by social, economic, political and other factors. For this reason, any demographic forecast has probabilistic nature. This article is prepared on the basis of several Bayesian probabilistic projection according to the Population Division of the Department of economic and social Affairs of the UN Secretariat. The main research method is a simulation of multifactor modeling. In general, migration in the Baltic States adversely affecting the projected population. However, the influence of net migration differs between the countries. It is necessary to take into account what according to the main provisions of UN and Eurostat net migration should be minimized until 2035. If the expected minimization of net migration will not happen, decrease in population of the Baltic States could be catastrophic. [From the publication]