Bankruptcy prediction models: case of the construction and transport & storage sector in Lithuania

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Bankrotas; Bankroto prognozavimo modeliai; Logistinė regresija; Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy prediction models; Logistic regression.

ENThe article presents the results of the research in the development of bankruptcy prediction models in the sectors of construction and transport & storage in Lithuania. The possibility to apply the models of logistic regression for bankruptcy prediction is investigated. A logistic regression model was developed on the basis of fi nancial ratios. Logistic regression model employs the fi nancial ratios which statistically signifi cantly differ in the fi nancial statements of bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy companies (in Lithuanian companies in construction and transport & storage sectors) 3 year before bankruptcy were distinguished in prior research works of authors. The present study distinguishes itself by its broad scope that was targeted for the fi rst time. In order to evaluate the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models and ensure the quality of the acquired data, empirical calculation was carried out including 485 companies whose bankruptcy processes were initiated in 2009–2013 and 459 companies that did not go bankrupt during this period. [From the publication]