Investigation of interdependence and changes in Lithuania household consumption and economic indicators
LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Koreliacinis ryšys; Makroekonominiai rodikliai; Namų ūkių vartojimas; Regresinis modelis; Correlation; Household consumption; Macroeconomic indicators; Regressio; Regression trend; Trend.
ENIn order to identify interdependence of Lithuania household consumption and macroeconomic indicators, an empirical study provided. Changes of Lithuania household budgets for 2007–2013 year determined by calculating chain indices, savings rate and its chain indices for 2008–2013 year also was calculated. After applying a polynomial trend the average disposable monthly income per member of the household, average monthly consumption expenditure per member of the household, LTL and savings rate (%) fluctuations in time where analysed. In order to establish a relationship between macro-economic indicators and income of household, consumption expenditure and savings rate, correlation and regression analysis performed. Main economic indicators were analysed: GDB, inflation, unemployment level and changes of labour income. For more comprehensive analysis of macro-economic indicators regression models were applied which show the changes in the macroeconomic indicators of changing them affecting the sizes of household income, consumption expenditure and savings ratio. It was found that household consumption expenditure are conditionally correlated with the Lithuanian macroeconomic indicators. The strongest relationship is between GDP, GDP per capita, and the monthly average wage (both gross and net) and average disposable income, average consumption expenditure per member of the household as well as the savings ratio. The analysis of household indicators revealed that in all cases much more accurate than the linear trend, fluctuations in time describes cubic trend, which means that both the average household income and consumption expenditure and savings ratio is not constantly growing size, they tend to fluctuate over the time. [From the publication]
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