Demografiniai pokyčiai ekonominių nestabilumų kontekste

LTStraipsnyje analizuojami Lietuvos demografinių procesų svyravimai ekonominių nestabilumų kontekste. Apžvelgiama literatūra, skirta pagrindinių demografinių procesų (migracijos, gimstamumo ir mirtingumo) ir ekonominio nestabilumo sąryšio studijoms, atliekami Lietuvos demografinių procesų ir demografinės elgsenos pokyčių ekonominių svyravimų ir pastarojo ekonominio nuosmukio kontekste vertinimai. Pirmiausia aptariamas ekonominio nestabilumo poveikis migraciniams procesams: mastams, kryptims, srautams. Vėliau analizuojami gimstamumo lygio ir prokreacinių ketinimų pokyčiai, aptariami prieštaringi mirtingumo svyravimai kintant makroekonominei aplinkai. Daroma išvada, kad makrolygmens ekonominiai svyravimai labai nevienareikšmiškai veikia įvairių demografinių procesų kitimą. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Ekonominė krizė; Gimstamumas; Migracija; Mirtingumas; Economic crisis; Fertility; Migration; Mortality.

ENArticle is devoted to an analysis of the reflection of economic instability on changes in demographic processes. The article draws the conclusion that the influence of macro-level economic fluctuations is ambiguous and sometimes even contradictory if different demographic processes are considered. The immediate and most often expressed impact of economic fluctuations is traced in migration development. With economic recession, significant changes are observed in the scope, trends, patterns and attitudes for migration: emigration increases and centres on the young working age population, immigration diminishes, and anti-immigrant rhetoric erupts. Various types of migration undergo different modifications, however. Changes to a great extent depend on the specifics of and gaps between the economic situations in Lithuania and the destination countries, and chain migration and re-dislocation of migration flow is therefore observed. Quite quickly, the impact of changes in the economic situation leaves a trace on childbearing behaviour, leading to changes in fertility indicators in 1-2 years. Fertility fluctuations in the context of economic instability are not distinct, however. Other factors have more expressed impact on the total fertility level and modification vector. Results of surveys (conducted in 2006, 2007 and 2010) allow assuming that procreative intentions and even attitudes respond to macro-economic fluctuations.Particularly contradictory changes can be observed in the health and mortality domain. The Lithuanian study confirms the hypothesis that in modern postindustrial societies relationships between economic change and mortality can be very complex and unpredictable. One of the most illustrative examples of such contradictory relationships concerns economic and mortality changes in Lithuania in the 2000s. In 2001-2007, the spectacular economic growth observed coincided with a simultaneous worsening of male mortality. Strikingly, with the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008-2009, mortality started improving at an impressive pace. The article presents an overview of theoretical insights designated to study the interrelation between the main demographic processes – migration, fertility, mortality – and economic instability. [From the publication]