Paskolų rinkos pusiausvyros lygio vertinimas: Lietuvos atvejis

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Paskolų rinkos pusiausvyros lygis; Paskolų bumas; Finansinis akceleratorius; Finansinis disbalansas; Loan market equilibrium level; Credit boom; Financial accelerator; Financial imbalance.

EN[...] The research object – loan market in Lithuania. The research goal – to analyze the theoretical aspects of the loan market equilibrium level assessment and evaluate the loan market equilibrium level in Lithuania. The research methods: systemic, logical and comparative analysis of scientific literature, analysis of the statistical data, univariate time-series model. In this article the loan market equilibrium level assessment methodology that was recommended by Gourinchas et al. (2001) was applied. There have been calculated loan/GDP ratio and was used Hodrick-Prescott filter. Summarizing the analyzed theoretical aspects of the loan market equilibrium level assessment and the research results of the loan market equilibrium level in Lithuania, the following conclusions can be formulated. In the scientific literature the extensive bank credit growth (credit bubble) is defined as loan market development that is inconsistent with long-term loan market equilibrium level. The scientists distinguish three phases of credit boom: the build-up phase that starts with the first year in which the indicator characterizing the loan market equilibrium level is above a limit threshold and ends one year before peak; the peak that is identified in the year in which there is the largest difference between the actual indicator ratio and its trend; and the ending phase starts the year after the peak and ends the year before the indicator characterizing the loan market equilibrium level is below the limit threshold. Analyzing the research results of the loan market equilibrium level in Lithuania, there can be identified three phases of loan market boom: the build-up phase was observed in 2005-2007, while the peak – in 2008, and the ending phase – in 2010.In the loans to non-financial corporations and households market segment there have been identified the same trends as in the whole loan market. Analyzing the trends of housing market in 2006-2013 from the equilibrium perspective, it can be noted that in housing market during Ql 2007 - Q4 2008 there have the build-up of the financial im balances observed when housing prices were over the long-term equilibrium level. So, summarizing it can be stated that the build-up of loan market boom and financial imbalances in the housing market occurred at the same time and the early beginning of loan market boom allowed to formulate the assumption that the loan boom caused the financial imbalances in the housing market. Analyzing the build-up of loan market boom from 2005-2007 perspective, it can be noted that the potential buil up of loan boom could be predicted in 2001-2002 and the specific macroprudential tools could be introduced in 2006. Analyzing the potential macroprudential tools from 2005 perspective, there could be applied the maximum loan-to-value ratio (LTV) requirement, which would increase the requirements for potential borrowers, reduce the potential financial accelerator effect, and the debt-to-income ratio (DTI), which could lead to higher quality requirements for potential borrowers (households). Besides, the recommendations on the additional taxes to restrict further build-up of the financial imbalances could be formulated for policy makers, for example, the extension of the real estate tax payers' base and so on. [From the publication]