Ciklinio ekonomikos svyravimo poveikio Šiaulių apskrities darbo rinkos rodikliams vertinimas

LTStraipsnyje pateikti teoriniai ekonominio cikliškumo sampratos aspektai ir įvertintas jų poveikis darbo rinkai. Nustatyta, kad 1999-2011 m. Šiaulių apskrityje cikliškumas pasireiškė ir įtakos darbo rinkos rodikliams turėjo tokiais etapais: 1999-2000m., mažėjant bendram vidaus produktui (BVP), nedarbo lygis didėjo (nuosmukis); 2001-2007 m., didėjant BVP, nedarbo lygis mažėjo (pakilimas); nuo 2008 m., pradėjus mažėti BVP, nedarbo lygis sparčiai didėjo (nuosmukis). Etapų išskyrimas leido suvokti darbo jėgos pasiūlos ir paklausos suderinamumo problemą Šiaulių apskrityje, kadangi ji ypač išryškėja per nuosmukį. Empiriniame tyrime naudojami šie metodai: koreliacija, regresija, priežastinė analizė ir dinamikos eilučių tyrimas. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Ciklinis ekonomikos svyravimas; Darbo rinka; Darbo rinkos rodikliai; Ekonominis ciklas; Poveikis; Regionai; Cyclical economic fluctuations; Economic cycle; Effect; Labor market; Labor market indicators; Labour amrket; Regions.

ENThis paper presents the theoretical concept of cyclical economic fluctuations aspects and assesses their impact on the labour market. A number of Lithuanian and foreign authors focus on the labour market, related problems are analyzed as well. Martinkus, Beržinskienė (2005) take a theoretical and a practical approach to the labour market analysis. They look for the reasons behind the changes and the solutions to the newly emerged problems. Pocius, Okunevičiūtė-Neverauskienė (2005) analyze the labour market developments. They perform a regionai evaluation of the labour market indicators and methodology. Navickas, Paulavičius (1999) examine the labour market and public policy theoretically. Foreign authors addressed the labour market issues and sought ways to reduce the impact of various macroeconomic processes on the labour market. Whelan, Whelan (1995) examined the exclusion of the long-term unemployed and poverty opportunities. Sihto (2001) analyzed the active labour market policies. Farmer (2009) studied the reduction of unemployment through fiscal policy. Botezatu, Botezatu investigated the Romanian labour market changes. The issues of European regionai, sočiai, and economic development were examined by Blanchard (2007), Commander, Heitmueller, Tyson (2006), Bucek (2000), Capriati (2005) and others. Research relevance and novelty. The labour market situation in Šiauliai County is also a rather common subject of analysis. It is most commonly investigated in comparison with other counties without emphasizing the cyclical character of economy. However, despite enormous theoretical interest and practical labour market analysis, the phenomenon of cyclical economic fluctuation requires more detailed theories and research.Therefore, our research is an attempt to provide the theoretical aspects ofthe concept of economic cycles and their impact on the labour market, and to assess the impact of cyclical economic fluctuations on the labour market indicators. Research problem. The research problem should be related to the assessment of impact of cyclical economic fluctuations onthe Šiauliai County labour market indicators; this has resulted in substantial changes in the labour market. This article analyzes the period of 1999-2011. In this article, economic cyclical phases are identified and analysis of how economic cycles influenced changes in the labour market is done. Research aim is to assess the impact of cyclical economic fluctuations on Šiauliai County labour market indicators in the period of 1999 through 2011. Research methods: theory and statistical analysis, comparison, grouping, organization and clustering, classification, aggregation, time series, correlation and regression analysis. This article analyzes the period of 1999-2011. It was found that in 1999-2011 the county business cycles occurred in the following stages: the period of 1999-2000: GDP decline, unemployment increase (decline), the period of 2001-2007: GDP growth, unemployment decline (rise). After 2008: GDP decline, unemployment increase (decline). Business cycles in isolation gave an indication of labour supply and demand problem ofthe county. [From the publication]

• Vadyba / Management
• Ekonomika / Economics