Bankroto prognozavimo modelių pritaikomumas skirtingo mokumo ir pelningumo įmonėms

LTStraipsnyje analizuojama bankroto esmė, požymiai, priežastys ir pasekmės, klasikiniai bankroto prognozavimo modeliai, mokumo ir pelningumo rodikliai bei jų ryšys su bankroto prognozavimo modeliais. Norint rasti tinkamiausią skirtingo mokumo ir pelningumo įmonėms bankroto prognozavimo modelį, tiriamajame darbe pritaikyti tiesinės diskriminantinės analizės bankroto prognozavimo modeliai: Altman, Taffler ir Tisshaw, Springate, Lis bei logistinės regresijos analizės bankroto prognozavimo modeliai: Zavgren ir Chesser. Nagrinėjama, kaip bankroto prognozavimo modeliai numatė bankroto grėsmę skirtingo mokumo ir pelningumo įmonėms, kas tai lėmė, bei palyginami su mokumo (bendrasis trumpalaikis mokumas, greitasis trumpalaikis mokumas, bendrasis skolos rodiklis) ir pelningumo (bendrasis pardavimo pelningumas, grynasis pardavimo pelningumas, grynasis nuosavo kapitalo pelningumas) rodikliais. Siekiant tinkamai įvertinti nagrinėjamų įmonių mokumo ir pelningumo rodiklių įtaką bankroto tikimybei, atliktas koreliacinio ryšio nustatymas tarp bankroto prognozavimo modelių ir mokumo bei pelningumo rodiklių. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Bankrotas; Bankroto prognozavimas; Bankroto prognozavimo modeliai; Bankroto tikimybė; Mokumo ir pelningumo rodikliai; Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy prediction; Bankruptcy prediction models; Probability of bankruptcy; Solvency and profitability ratios.

EN[...]The search for a complex ratios describing probability of bankruptcy of a company or their system abroad was started in the 1920s and continues till now. Altman (1968), Lis (1973), Chesser (1974), Taffier & Tisshaw (1977), Springate (1978), Zavgren (1985) made a significant contribution to research of bankruptcy prediction. Article starts with a review of the essence, evidence reasons and consequences of bankruptcy, classical bankruptcy prediction models, solvency and profitability ratios and their relation to bankruptcy prediction models. 14 operating Lithuanian companies of different solvency and profitability have been selected for research of bankruptcy prediction models. In order to establish the most appropriate bankruptcy prediction model to companies of different solvency and profitability, the study analyses bankruptcy prediction models of the linear discriminant analysis: Bankruptcy prediction models of Altman, Taffier & Tisshaw, Springate, Lis and logistic regression analysis: Zavgren and Chesser. The article investigates how bankruptcy prediction models of 2006 to 2010 predicted the bankruptcy threat, what influenced that and compares to the ratios of solvency (gross short-term solvency, quick shortterm solvency, gross debt ratio) and profitability (gross sales profit, net sales profit, net equity profit). In order to properly evaluate the influence of solvency and profitability ratios of the companies being investigated on bankruptcy probability, a correlative relationship between bankruptcy prediction models and solvency and profitability ratios has been estimated.[...] After generalisation of the relationship between solvency and profitability ratios and bankruptcy prediction models it can be stated that solvency and profitability ratios have influence on bankruptcy prediction models; however, the analysis of solvency and profitability ratios has a more significant impact. It has been established that no probability of bankruptcy of profitable and solvent companies indicated by most bankruptcy prediction models while the latter indicated probability of bankruptcy for unprofitable and insolvent companies, profitable but insolvent ones and insolvent but profitable ones. The analysis of the correlative relationship has been established that solvency and profitability ratios have an influence on the Z-score values of bankruptcy prediction models belonging to the group of linear discriminant analysis - Altman, Taffier & Tisshaw, Springate and Lis, except for the gross debt ratio, which has no impact on the bankruptcy prediction models of Springate and Lis. Solvency and profitability ratios have no influence on Z-score values of logistic regression bankruptcy prediction model of Zavgren while weak influence- on Chesser's model. [From the publication]

• Vadyba / Management
• Ekonomika / Economics