Rusijos, Baltarusijos ir Kazachstano muitų sąjungos žemės ūkio ir maisto produktų santykinio pranašumo vertinimas

LT2010 m. pradėjusi veikti Rusijos, Baltarusijos ir Kazachstano muitų sąjunga turi ir ateityje turės poveikio Lietuvos eksportui į šias šalis, ypač į Rusiją, kuri yra viena svarbiausių lietuviškų žemės ūkio ir maisto produktų pardavimo rinkų. Aptarus ekonominės integracijos ir muitų sąjungos, kaip tam tikros jos formos, teorines prielaidas bei Rusijos, Baltarusijos ir Kazachstano muitų sąjungos susidarymo sąlygas, straipsnyje tą poveikį bandoma atskleisti nagrinėjant Rusijos, Baltarusijos ir Kazachstano sąjungą sudarančių šalių žemės ūkio ir maisto produktų gamybos potencialą, tiriant šių šalių gaminamų žemės ūkio ir maisto produktų santykinį pranašumą pasaulio rinkose. Pateikiama siūlymų Lietuvos eksportuotojams, kaip prisitaikyti prie besikeičiančių užsienio prekybos sąlygų. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Žemės ūkio ir maisto produktai; Atskleistas santykinis pranašumas; Eksportas; Muitų tarifai; Agricultural and food products; Comparative advantage; Export; Customs tariffs.

ENThe establishment of a customs union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan (the RBK Customs Union) in 2010 is one of the most important regional economic alliances for Lithuania. The union between these countries will have a significant impact on Lithuania’s agricultural and food exports, as Russia is a major export market for Lithuania’s agricultural and food products. The paper examines the theoretical assumptions of regional economic integration, evaluates the potential of the RBK Customs Union in the agricultural sector, assesses the revealed comparative advantage of the agricultural and food sectors in the RBK Customs Union member states and Lithuania, and measures the possible impact of the RBK Customs Union on Lithuanian agricultural and food exports. The research also provides insights for the Lithuanian producers of agricultural and food products. A review of the scientific literature implied the main conditions for regional economic integration. The methods of deduction, comparative analysis, historical comparison and statistical analysis were applied to assess the RBK Customs Union member states’ economic situation, potential of the agricultural sector, and possible impact on Lithuania’s agricultural and food export. Thus, the international competitiveness of the RBK Customs Union member states in the agricultural and food sectors was measured using the RCA index (Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage). Trade data from the UN Comtrade database was used for the RCA index calculations. According to the twodigit Combined Nomenclature, all agricultural and food groups (01-24) were chosen for the analysis during the selected period (the years 2000–2010), the decade after the 1998–1999 Russian financial crisis.The RCA index was calculated separately for Russian, Belarus and Kazakhstan agricultural and food products as well as for the whole RBK Customs Union as if the countries had already been functioning under a Customs Union agreement during the entire period. Lithuania’s RCA index for agricultural and food products was calculated in order to examine the level of competitiveness of Lithuanian products, and to compare the results with the RBK Customs Union member states. The RBK Customs Union member states have little comparative advantage in their agricultural and food products. The analyzed Union has only a small comparative advantage in the fish, grain and milling product sectors. Russia seeks to improve its food provision levels through imports from the other countries of the RBK Customs Union. In this context, Lithuanian agricultural producers will compete with cheaper Belarus dairy and meat production and flour from Kazakhstan. The establishment of the RBK Customs Union has allowed harmonizing the basic regulatory instruments of foreign trade between the member states. The common import tariff was based on Russian import duties. Mainly mixed import tariffs were applied to agricultural and food products. The analysis has shown that changes in the trading conditions will affect Lithuanian exporters. The main Lithuanian products on the Russian market are dairy products, mainly cheese and curd. More differentiated higher duties were applied to those products, but this will have little effect on Lithuanian exports, while exports of live pigs will be aggravated, however this will encourage the export of meat products. The Lithuanian producers’ position on the Belarus market has been varying considerably because of a difficult entry into the market and the potential of Belarus agricultural production.Belarus is an important re-export market for Lithuanian fruit and food industry residues, as well as waste and animal feed. Cereal exports to this country have dropped significantly since 2005. Lithuania has to regain its position in the export of crops, and to expand the variety of its food exports. The relationship of trade in agricultural products between Lithuania and Kazakhstan is not well developed. The potential of many Lithuanian agricultural and food products allows increasing exports between these two countries. Kazakhstan is only self-sufficient in grains and flour. The establishment of the RBK Customs Union provides preconditions for Lithuanian exporters to expand their export markets to Kazakhstan, especially if selfsufficiency in meat and dairy products remains low. Producers of agricultural and food products should focus on better product quality and exports of higher value-added products. Much more effort has to be made in the promotion of Lithuanian products on RBK Customs Union markets. Lithuanian producers of agricultural and food products have a well-developed infrastructure, favourable climatic conditions for the development of animal husbandry, and have made substantial investments in the processing sector. These advantages help strengthen the Lithuanian exporters’ positions on world markets. [From the publication]