Lietuvos makroekonominių rodiklių atitiktis Mastrichto sutarties kriterijams ir jų prognozė

LTLietuvos valstybei integruojantis į Europos Sąjungos (ES) ekonominę ir politinę erdvę, ES valiutinių santykių sistema (gauna vis didesnę reikšmę Lietuvos ūkiui. 2004 m. Lietuva tikisi tapti ES nare. Tolesnis eurointegracijos etapas anksčiau w vėliau bus Europos ekonominė ir pinigų sąjunga (EPS). Nors ne visos ES šalys narės yra viename ekonominės integracijos etape, ką rodo ir jų narystė EPS (pvz.. Didžioji Britanija, Švedija, Danija), tačiau prieš dešimtmetį prasidėję integracijos procesai negali nutrūkti dėl įvairių ekonominių ir politinių priežasčių. O naujų narių, taip pat ir Lietuvos, kryptingesnė orientacija pradiniuose integracijos etapuose gali padėti pasiekti geresnių rezultatu ateityje. Šiame straipsnyje nagrinėjami pagrindiniai Ekonominės ir pinigų sąjungos (EPS) aspektai, funkcionavimo ypatumai, Lietuvos makroekonominės padėties pokyčiai pagal Mastrichto sutarties kriterijus 1998-2002 m., taip pat prognozuojami mūsų šalies makroekonominiai rodikliai 2003-2005 m. ir lyginami su konvergencijos kriterijų reikalavimais. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Euras; Europos ekonominė ir pinigų sąjunga; Kriterijai; Makroekonominiai rodikliai; Euro; European Economic and Monetary Union; European Monetary Union; Macroeconimic Indexes; Requiremens.

ENAim of research - to assess economic situation in Lithuania according Mastricht Treaty and foresee it. Object of research - macroeconomic criteria of Lithuania and their correspondence according to Mastricht Treaty requirements. The main conclusions of the research are given in the article. The essence of monetary union is not only economic, but also has its political background. Thus, creation and successful functioning of the European Monetary Union (EMU) is not only a political, but also an economic achievement. Integration of Lithuania to the EU and EMU is the same process, thus, present negotiations and progress are going to have a large impact on a later stage of negotiations. For instance, meeting the requirements present and future periods could help us to become a member of EMU much faster. This can decrease expenses of transactions with foreign partners and other beneficial. The economic situation in Lithuania meeting the requirements became much better during 1998 -2002. Inflation rate became lower in 2002 as compared to 1998, there was a deflation in 2002; budget deficit and long term yield rate decreased accordingly 0.1 and 4.6 per cent. The only state debt index increased by 3.6 per cent during the investigated period but it is not higher than required by the Treaty. Other indexes do not exceed the limits. Thus Lithuania should try to maintain the present macroeconomic situation in the future, also make better investment to surrounding and decrease interest rate both to business and private customers. Membership in the EU is almost assured. According to the intention to keep to the trend of economic policy, tax reforms and reforms of other fields, foreseen macroeconomic rates during year 2003-2005 show inflation rate increase by 2,5 percent in 2004. It will be affected by increase of economic potential and efficiency and thus increase of salary in 2004.Budget deficit will increase by 1.8 percent in 2004 due to pension reforms during the nearest years. State debt will have to decrease (by 21.3 percent in 2005), in national currency should increase and decrease in foreign currency. Government expects a large inflow from privatization process. Long-term interest yield should not increase due to decrease of international interest rate in the nearest 12 month. Thus, Lithuania should maintain all the main requirements and participating in currency rate mechanism prove its possibilities with the first states join the euro currency already in 2006. [From the publication]