Makroaplinkos veiksniai ir jų įtaka prognostiniam baldų paklausos Lietuvoje vertinimui
LTStraipsnyje detaliai nagrinėjami makroaplinkos veiksniai bei tiriamos jų vertinimo galimybės konkrečioje rinkoje. Tyrimas pradedamas nuo makroaplinkos sampratos nagrinėjimo, vėliau pereinama prie makroaplinkos veiksnių (ekonominių, politinių ir teisinių, socialinių ir kultūrinių, mokslinių technologinių) analizės ir vertinimo paklausos prognozavimo požiūriu. Straipsnis baigiamas makroaplinkos veiksnių įtakos prognostiniam baldų paklausos Lietuvoje vertinimu. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Makroaplinka; Makroaplinka, rinkos paklausa, prognozavimas; Prognozavimas; Rinkos paklausa; Forecasting; Macro environment; Macro environment, market demand, forecasting; Market demand.
ENEffective market demand forecasting depends not only on the aspects of forecasting methods but also on the way market demand is influenced by various factors reflecting structural and macro environmental characteristics of market economy. Theoretical economic models and practical recommendations of applied investigations mostly offer market demand inquiry methods and development of forecasting structure on the enterprise level. Market demand forecasts worked out exceptionally by statistical methods often ignore the influence of qualitative factors of macro environment upon the market demand. All this is clear evidence of the fact that there has not yet been formed any common conception of macro environment estimation in contemporary economic research, which would enable exhaustive estimation of external environment of the market and work out market demand forecasts. The chief goal of this article is to analyse factors of macro environment according to various levels and to estimate factors of macro environment on the basis of Lithuania's furniture market. The external conditions of any market demand is often defined as macro environment, but sometimes is identified as having main influence to the state economy. Anyway, particular actions of government institutions can only shift the nature of macro environment, to make active or to limit the activity of economic subjects. According to researchers, macro environment could be identified as part of business environment or part of external forecasting environment. In conformity with scientific research, the detailed estimation of macro environment was done, including economic, political-legal, technological- scientific and natural environment.The theoretical research of macro environment revealed the fact that the estimation of market demand is influenced not only by economic macro environmental aspects that are closely linked with identification of business cycles and forecasting of economic activity, which are widely described by many a scholar, but also political, legal, social, cultural, technological and natural factors. For a detailed estimation of macro environment we suggest that macro environmental factors depending upon concrete characteristics of market structure be selected. To forecast market demand, identification of the chief factors of demand (price, customers' income, etc.) is not enough. Social-cultural environment often determines structure of customers needs and forms future market demand (including furniture demand), especially when model of tradition family understanding is going out in Lithuania. It is especially related to such factors, as social status of habitant, consumption traditions, reappraisal of cultural value. On the one hand, because of technical lag of enterprises, low effectiveness of recourses usage, technological-scientific ideas have poor evidence in Lithuania, on the other hand, furniture market (for example, kitchen furniture market) is highly influenced by modern technologies, and thus forms new segments of furniture demand. The influence of natural environment to furniture demand in Lithuania is related to indirect change of power resources and prices of furniture materials. Increasing concentration of wood buyers and little growth of furniture market had the influence to that change. [...]. [From the publication]
