Tiesioginių užsienio investicijų rizikos indikatoriaus Baltijos šalims kūrimas

LTStraipsnis skirtas tiesioginių užsienio investicijų rizikos vertinimo problemoms. Jame atskleidžiami pagrindiniai investicijų riziką užsienio šalyse lemiantys veiksmai, fokie kaip: šalies ekonominės strategijos komponentai - prekybos politika, valstybinis reguliavimas, kainų politika, investicijų prioritetai, šalies finansų struktūra; fiskalinė šalies politika; užsienio valiutos pajamos; užsienio skola; šalies likvidumo pozicija. Baltijos šalių pavyzdžiu analizuojami su investicijų rizika susiję indikatoriai - pereinamojo ekonomikos laikotarpio indikatoriai, ekonominės laisvės indeksai, šalių kreditinės rizikos reitingai. Autoriai siūlo originalų, gerokai paprastesnį už įprastuosius ir reikalaujantį mažiau darbo, o kartu ir mažiau ekonominių sąnaudų, indikatorių, pateikia jo sudarymo metodiką. Jį naudojant gaunami ne mažiau patikimi rezultatai. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Baltijos šalys (Baltic states); Investicijų rizikos indikatoriai; Rizikos įvertinimas; Skirtingi rodikliai; Tiesioginiai užsienio investuotojai; Tiesioginių užsienio investicijų rizika; Tiesioginės užsienio investicijos; Užsienio investicijos; Valiutinės rizikos rodikliai; Baltic countries; Currency risk indicators; Different indicators; Foreign direct investment; Foreign direct investment risk; Foreign direct investors; Foreign investment; Investment risk indicators; Risk assessment.

ENArticle provides the methodology to assess country risk to foreign direct investors. Foreign direct investment involves a long-term commitment to business endeavour in a foreign country. It often involves the engagement of considerable assets and resources and therefore risk if operations happens to be unprofitable. Due to higher risk to their activities foreign direct investors are interested in assessing risk in target countries. Understanding the sources of risk to investment makes the process of foreign investment more predictable. There are three major types of risk to international companies: expropriation of assets due to change of political regime, inability to remit profits due to country's foreign exchange difficulties and inability to generate expected profits due to changes in economic factors or regulations in taxation system. The sources of risk are: slump in general economic situation, change in government policy, change in political regime. Assessing country risk, live major areas of economy require particular attention: government economic strategy, fiscal policy, foreign exchange generation, foreign debt burden, liquidity and cash flow. Different indicators in relation to country risk assessment provide different results, however general trends remain the same. Three Central Europe countries - Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovenia and three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been compared according to different country risk and country progress indicators. The indicators used in the analysis - EBRD transition indicator, indicator of economic freedom, country credit risk indicator - give the most favorable assessment to Hungary in the group of Central Europe countries and to Estonia in the group of Baltic countries. Since most indicators are only indirectly related to foreign direct investment risk, the a indicator has been designed.The new indicator is rather simple compared to the indicators mentioned before. It requires little time and human resources, therefore it can prove attractive to foreign investment agencies, business consultants and foreign direct investors. [From the publication]