Integracijos į ES poveikis Lietuvos ekonomikai : analizė ir kiekybinis įvertinimas

LTStraipsnyje nagrinėjama integracijos į Europos Sąjungą įtaka Lietuvos ekonomikai. Naudojant ekonometrinio modeliavimo metodus bandoma atsakyti į klausimą, kokį poveikį integracijos procesai turi bendrojo vidaus produkto pokyčiams. Pirmiausia analizuojami pagrindiniai integracijos įtakos šaltiniai: bendrosios rinkos efektas, prekybos režimo pokyčiai su trečiosiomis šalimis, laisvas kapitalo ir laisvas darbo jėgos judėjimas, biudžetiniai srautai bei visuminių išlaidų struktūros pokyčiai. Toliau, taikant makroekonometrinį ir sektorinį ekonometrinį modelius, įvertinamas antrinis šių impulsų poveikis bendrajam vidaus produktui ir jo struktūrai. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Integracija į Europos Sąjungą; Bendrasis vidaus produktas; Lietuvos ekonomika; Integration to the European Union; Gross domestic product; Lithuanian economy.

ENThe Eastern enlargement of the EU has very important consequences to both the Eastern and Central European countries and present Member States. In order to compare the costs and benefits of integration it is important to evaluate these consequences in quantitative terms. It is necessary to Lithuanian government institutions, subjects of economy, and all citizens to know what impact on Lithuanian economy the preparation for the membership and the membership in the EU will have. The purpose of the research was to systematize all the results of consequences of integration to the EU and using (he methods of econometric modeling to evaluate the impact of these results on the GDP of Lithuania. First, the main sources of integration influence are analyzed: the effect of Common market, the changes of trade regime with the third parties, the free movement of capital and labour force, the flows between the EU and Lithuanian budgets, and the changes of structure of aggregate expenses. Further, using the macro econometric and sectorial econometric modeling the secondary effect of these impulses to GDP and its structure is evaluated.After thorough analysis and calculations the following conclusions are drawn: the effect of the Common market, the payments from the EU budget, and the increase of foreign direct investments have the largest primary impact on Lithuanian economy; because of the integration to the EU the GDP of Lithuania during 2002-2009 period will be larger by 51.5 billion LTL, and especially the household consumption will increase; the average change in GDP that comes from the impact of integration will be about 10% of total GDP during the period of 2002-2009, and (he growth rate of Lithuanian economy during the same period will be 0.6 percent higher compared with hypothetical non-integration situation; the largest impact of integration would be incurred by industry sector, electricity, gas and water supply sector, and by wholesale and retail activities sector. [From the publication]