Pereinamo laikotarpio rezultatų Lietuvos ekonomikoje įvertinimas

LTStraipsnio tikslas apibendrinti pereinamo laikotarpio iš centralizuotos ekonomikos į rinkos ekonomiką reformų patirtį. Šis įvertinimas leidžia nustatyti veiksnius, kurie nulėmė ekonomikos augimą, o taip pat veiksnius, sąlygojusius reformų metu atsiradusias problemas. Remiantis atlikta analize galima suformuoti valstybės ekonomikos politiką, kuri teigiamai įtakotų augimo veiksnius bei sumažintų neigiamų veiksnių poreikį ir tuo būdu padidintų ekonomikos augimo tempus. Savo ruožtu aiškus problemų ir jų atsiradimo priežasčių įvardinimas sudaro prielaidas ekonominės strategijos, padėsiančios išspręsti susikaupusias problemas, įgyvendinimui. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Pereinamojo laikotarpio ekonomika; Centralizuota ekonomika; Rinkos ekonomika; Transition economics; Centralised economics; Market economy.

ENIn the beginning of transition period economists thought that economic growth and prosperity are automatic outcomes of shift from centralized to market orientated economy. However, the reality was different. Success of economic transformation depends on different responses to technological-structural challenges and setting appropriate environment required generating economic growth. Lithuania began the decade of transition not with economic growth, but with a severe economic collapse. From 1990 to 1994, GDP declined by 45 per cent in real terms, one of the steepest declines of any of the transition economies. The main reasons the economy contracted so severely were the breakdown of trading relations with CIS states, the consumer shock when import prices climbed to world market levels and the adverse effects of high inflation on domestic investment. Although there is no doubt that real GDP fell sharply from 1989-1994, official figures tend to over-estimate the true extent of the output fall. Reported GDP estimates don't fully account for gray economy output or reflect the considerable improvement in the quality of goods and services on the market. Economic statistics from the early 1990s have a wide margin of error, in any event, because of the statistical reporting problems resulting from high inflation, limited adoption of western accounting practices and the breakdown of enterprise-based statistical reporting practices. The national accounts data have been revised several times and must be interpreted with a degree of caution. The structure of GDP changed in the 1990s. Lithuania's economy shifted from agriculture and manufacturing-oriented economy to a more services-sector oriented economy. The shift of resources from low-productivity agriculture and industry to higher productivity services was the key sources of growth in the mid-1990s.In 1990, agriculture accounted for just under one-fifth of national output. By 1997, the share of agriculture in GDP had declined to 11.7 per cent. The industrial sector accounted for 35-40 per cent of total output in 1991 and 1992. By 1997, industrial output accounted for just 24.7 per cent of GDP. Rapid growth was registered in the services sector, with the contribution of the trade, restaurant, hotel and real estate sectors increasing from 9 per cent of GDP in 1990 to 25.5 per cent of GDP in 1997. Reflecting a relatively low level of financial intermediation, the share of the financial sector declined from 7.3 per cent, of GDP in 1993 to 2.4 per cent of GDP in 1997. Another factor that has contributed to the recovery was the creation of a large number of new, privately owned and operated firms. As of the end of 1998, the Department of Statistics reported that there were 143,500 registered private enterprises in Lithuania, of which 56,000 were involved in retail trade, 21,000 in the processing industry, 9,800 in transport, warehousing and communications and 9,300 in other service sector activity. Since mass privatization was used to effect most of the initial transformation of enterprises in Lithuania, the nation finds itself in a situation in which many (post-privatization) company owners have neither the capital, the market-oriented managerial skills or the governance and accountability systems commonly relied on to ensure that investment is efficient and effective. It led to collapse of a number of big companies and rise of structural unemployment. Restructuring process needs highly flexible labour and capital markets as well as strong insitutions, however, their development has been slow in Lithuania. These factors contributed to a renewal of macroeconomic instability and slowdown of economic growth. [From the publication]