Europos integracijos iššūkiai ir lito likimas

LTStraipsnyje glaustai apžvelgiama galima Lietuvos centrinio banko ir lito raida, atsižvelgiant į tolesnę Lietuvos integraciją į Europos ekonominę sąjungą bei Europos ekonominę ir pinigų sąjungą. Daugiausia dėmesio skiriama valiutos kurso mechanizmui Nr. 2 (VKM II - Exchange-rate mechanism II) kaip tarpiniam etapui pereinant nuo lito prie euro bei Lietuvos banko ir kitų šalies institucijų pasirengimui šiam žingsniui. Jame pateikiami teoriniai bei praktiniai VKM II aspektai, apžvelgiami Europos centrinio banko reikalavimai, nagrinėjama šio mechanizmo taikymo Danijoje patirtis. Straipsnyje taip pat akcentuojamos šio valiutos kurso mechanizmo praktinio taikymo Lietuvoje galimybės bei tikėtinas poveikis lito ateities gairėms nubrėžti. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Danija (Denmark); ES; Euras; Europos centrinis bankas; Europos ekonominė ir pinigų sąjunga; Integracija; Lietuvos centrinis bankas; Litas; Pinigų sąjunga; Central Bank of Lithuania; Danish experience; EU; Euro; European Central Bank; European Economic and Monetary Union; Integration; Litas; Monetary union; The European Union; Europos Sąjunga (European Union).

ENThe article presents a concise review of the potential development of the Bank of Lithuania and the litas within the context of Lithuania's further integration in the European Union and the Economic and Monetary Union. The paper mostly focuses on the Exchange Rate Mechanism II as a period of transition from the litas to the euro and the preparation of the Bank of Lithuania and other national institutions for that step. The authors deal with theoretical and practical aspects of ERM II, present a review of European Central Bank requirements and analyse the Danish experience of its participation in the Mechanism. In addition, the article stresses the possibilities for the practical application of the Exchange Rate Mechanism and the expected impact on the future of the litas. From the starting date of their membership in the EU, the new Member States undertake a commitment of adopting the euro in due course. During the period of the participation in ERM II, these countries have to pursue such macroeconomic policies that would facilitate real and nominal convergence and would allow a country, wishing to adopt the euro, to meet Maastricht criteria. ERM II is an exchange rate policy system of euro area countries and EU Member States that have not adopted the euro. The key feature of the system is the central parity between the national currency of a country that has not adopted the euro vis-a-vis the euro, and the allowed exchange rate fluctuation band of ±15% in relation to that central parity.However, the European Commission and, more recently, the European Central Bank, have sought to narrow down the fluctuation band within ERM II (±2,25%) with regard to the new EU Member States. the central bank of Denmark has managed to maintain a very stable exchange rate of the national currency against the euro throughout the whole period of its participation in ERM II since 1999 by using a significantly narrower fluctuation band than the adopted ±2,25%. Lithuania is one of the few EU candidate countries that already meet Maastricht requirements for the adoption of the euro. It is expected that Lithuania will join ERM II soon after assuming membership in the EU. The position of the Bank of Lithuania is that the present fixed exchange rate regime and the current official exchange rate between the litas and the euro of LTL 3.4528 for EUR 1 with a zero band is suitable for participation in ERM II and the adoption of the euro. Regardless of certain differences between the operation of the currency board arrangement and the interventions undertaken in ERM II, the currency board arrangement is deemed to be an acceptable exchange rate regime for this Mechanism. After becoming a EU member from 1 May 2004, immediately joining ERM II and staying in it for at least two years, Lithuania will be meeting the requirements for the adoption of the euro. Thus, Lithuania would be in a position to give up the litas and adopt the euro in late 2006 or early 2007. [From the publication]