Emigrantų piniginiai pervedimai ir jų poveikis ekonomikai

LTStraipsnyje nagrinėjama mokslinėje literatūroje pateikiama emigrantų piniginių pervedimų samprata ir institucijų taikomi jų skaičiavimo būdai, šios rūšies pinigų srautų savybės, priežastys ir padariniai, ypatingą dėmesį skiriant įtakai, kurią tokie pervedimai daro juos gaunančios šalies ekonomikai. Lyginami emigrantų piniginių pervedimų poveikį Lenkijos ir Lietuvos ekonomikos augimui aprašantys regresiniai modeliai ir pateikiami šių modelių taikymo rezultatai. Tikrinama straipsnio autorių išsikelta prielaida, kad Lietuvos ekonomikai emigrantų pervedamų pinigų įtaka svaresnė nei Lenkijos ekonomikai, kuriai būdinga mažesnė emigrantų piniginių pervedimų dalis, palyginti su šalies bendruoju vidaus produktu. Straipsnio autorių pateiktomis rekomendacijomis gali pasinaudoti tos valdžios institucijos, kurioms rūpi emigrantų piniginių pervedimų valdymas. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Ekonomikos augimas; Emigrantai (Diaspora); Pinigų srautai; Investicijos; Economic growth; Emigrants' remittances; Cash flows; Investments.

ENEmigrants’ remittances are private cash flows which are sent by emigrants to their relatives left in their home country. These transfers are usually periodic, nonmarket and unrequited. Despite the fact that emigrants remit only a few hundred dollars at a time, these flows have unique characteristics that imply a possibility of strong effects on an economy. The analysis of the Lithuanian and Polish economies shows such a relation too. To begin with, remittances can be measured as a sum of three components: workers‘ remittances, employee compensation and migrants‘ transfers. However, scientists believe that the most proper way to measure them is to use workers‘ remittances only. Also, while analyzing the developing countries as Lithuania and Poland it is acceptable to include employee compensation too. What is more, emigrants’ remittances have attracted the interest of researchers because of their extraordinary characteristics and potential impact on economic development. Remittances are constantly growing cash flows that are usually sent to developing countries. The basic reasons to remit are altruism and self-interest exchange. Moreover, these transfers are distinct from those of foreign direct investment or private capital. Remittances are less dependent on the global economic situation, which implies their continuous growth without significant downturns. In addition, emigrants’ remittances may have both advantages and drawbacks. First of all, they can reduce poverty, increase consumption and investment in a receiving country. Remittances can reduce the risk of income shocks and make it possible to exchange working hours into time for studies. However, remittances can cause some negative effects as Dutch disease or a country‘s dependence on remittances.Talking about empirical tests, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have conducted abundant scientific research and paper work on remittances. However, there is no common, globally accepted model to test the impact of emigrants’ remittances on an economy. The GDP growth per capita is usually used as a dependent variable in panel regressions where independent variables are chosen freely according to the theories of scientists. In this article, two European Union member states – Lithuania and Poland – are compared in order to analyze the impact of remittances on their economic growth. Despite the fact that these countries have great differences in the size and level of their economic development, they both are among the top countries receiving the biggest amounts of remittances. In 2009, Lithuania had one of the highest remittances-to-GDP ratios (3.14 per cent), while that of Poland was 1.8 per cent only. However, Poland with its USD 8.13 billion was the twelfth among the countries receiving the biggest absolute amounts of remittances. Moreover, Lithuania and Poland have a different structure of emigrants’ remittances. It should be noted that, in Lithuania, workers‘ remittances account for over 80 per cent of a total of remittances, while in Poland the employee compensations’ share is even 56.6 per cent. While analyzing the Lithuanian and Polish economies in respect of emigrants’ remittances, the GDP growth per capita is also chosen as a dependent variable. The exportsto- GDP ratio, unemployment rate, private capital flows to GDP, foreign direct investment to GDP, inflation, percentage of tertiary school enrollment, labour force growth, labour productivity and, of course, the remittances-to-GDP ratio are independent variables.The hypothesis of the article states states that the effect on economic growth caused by emigrants’ remittances is greater in Lithuania because this country receives bigger flows of remittances to its GDP compared with Poland. To sum up, the results of the analysis show that in both cases emigrants’ remittances are not statistically significant in the model that explains economic growth. Despite the fact that, in Lithuania, remittances have a negative impact on the GDP growth per capita, in Poland they influence it positively. These differences may occur because of the different structure of the remittances, disparity of the factors that drive remittances and the inequality in the efficiency of the use of these cash flows. In addition, the hypothesis is rejected because the research shows that the ratio of emigrants’ remittances to the GDP does not have a positive effect on greater impact of remittances. [From the publication]