Vartorojų lūkesčių poveikis nekilnojamojo turto rinkai Lietuvoje

LTNekilnojamojo turto (NT) rinkos svyravimai yra įprastas reiškinys, tačiau 2008 m. pasaulinė finansų krizė labai stipriai palietė šį sektorių. Tokie reiškiniai rinkose reikalauja išsamesnių mokslinių tyrimų siekiant išvengti tokių nuosmukių ateityje. Šis staigus kainų augimas ir kritimas susijęs su vartotojų lūkesčiais, kai vartotojai, subjektyviai vertindami informaciją, gali nepaisyti rinkos fundamentalių veiksnių ir priimti neracionalius sprendimus. Šio straipsnio tikslas yra ištirti būstų kainų ir vartotojų pasitikėjimo rodiklio ryšį siekiant nustatyti šių dviejų kintamųjų priklausomybę. Tyrimo metu nustatyta, kad vartotojų pasitikėjimo rodiklis turi poveikį NT kainoms, tačiau patikimo statistinio ryšio tarp skirtingų vartotojų grupių pasitikėjimo rodiklio ir būsto kainos pokyčių nustatyti nepavyko. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Būsto kaina; Nekilnojamo turto rinka; Nekilnojamo turto rinka, vartotojų lūkesčiai, būsto kaina, pereinamoji ekonomika, vartotojų pasitikėjimo rodiklis, vartotojų nuomonė; Pereinamoji ekonomika; Vartotojų lūkesčiai; Vartotojų nuomonė; Vartotojų pasitikėjimo rodiklis; Consumer confidence; Housing prices; Real Estate market, consumer confidence, sentiment, expectations, housing prices, transition economy; Real estate market; Sentiment expectations; Transition economy.

ENLooking at real estate markets in the world, we can see that they are often affected by the various shocks which are difficult to justify just based on fundamental factors. These markets depend not only on the direct factors, such as bank interest rates, wage rates, economic growth and etc., but also from indirect factors such as information technology development, growth of mutual funds, development of stock markets and others. There are many indirect factors, but they are all connected by one feature - consumer's expectations. Consumer's expectations may be influenced by fundamental or direct factors, but indirect factors are less analyzed and require greater scientific attention. Aim of this research is to reveal relationship between consumer's confidence and housing price in Lithuania. Before turning to the empirical part of research, this paper examines the theoretical aspects of expectations. Literature review section is focused on consumer's opinion formation and how they interface with the real estate market and why it is important to investigate. Real estate market consist of very heterogeneous objects and for more reliable data in this study we will use just housing market data in Lithuania, without touching land and commercial real estate markets. In this research we come to these conclusions: 1. Consumer's expectations are important trying to predict economic growth. But now is more important to predict consumer's expectations and identify factors which influence them. Consumer's expectations may influence the market without any rational factors, but eventually market comes back to fundamental factors.Expectations various between different countries and depend on the culture of the country, i.e. where the country is dominated by "herd" feeling, expectations have more possibility to come true. 2. The first hypothesis of our research stated that consumer opinion on economic trends and future changes evaluated by consumer confidence indicator indicates housing price changes in the future. This hypothesis is proven when we compare housing price changes with the 1998 housing price. 3. Second hypothesis stated that a confidence of different user group on economic trends and future changes is more accurate than the other. This hypothesis is not proven. The sum of correlation coefficient squares differ slightly, overall difference between the maximum and minimum values are less than 10 percent of maximum value. 4. Comparing housing prices with 1998 price give us more accurate prediction of the time lag between housing prices and consumer confidence indicator changes. 5. When the housing price changes are calculated in comparison with 1998 prices, the highest correlation coefficient obtained when house prices are measured two years after the consumer's confidence survey. Findings of the research can provide a more accurate relation between consumer confidence and housing market, but these results should be interpreted with caution, taking into account the fact that consumer surveys started in Lithuania only in 2001 and the housing prices are from 1998. Real estate market cycles are longer term usually. Therefore, to improve results, this research should be repeated by taking a longer time interval. [From the publication]

• Vadyba / Management
• Ekonomika / Economics