Antros pakopos kaupiamųjų pensijų fondų poveikis makroekonomikai

LTReikšminiai žodžiai: Pensijų fondai; Senatvės pensija; Simultaninės lygtys; Socialinio draudimo senatvės pensijos; Socialinis draudimas; Pension funds; Pensions; Public retirement; Public retirement pensions; Simultaneous equations.

ENThis paper analyzes the impact of second pillar pension funds on the main macroeconomic variables. It helps to identify and evaluate the negative and positive effects of second pillar pension funds on Lithuanian economy. This is one of the first scientific research attempts to evaluate the impact of pension funds on specific macroeconomic variables, searching for the answer what could have been if Lithuania had not introduced pension funds. The analysis was performed and the conclusions were drawn on the basis of dynamic econometric model (simultaneous equation model) and impact multiplier functions. The shocks, equal to direct loss of old-age pensions, were generated into the system and the numeric values of impact multipliers functions were obtained. The evaluation of the direct impact led to the conclusion that pension funds reduced the consumption opportunities for old-age pensioners, suspended the reduction of the gap between the consumption opportunities of old-age pensioners and the insured and reduced the volume of public goods and services provided. Old-age pensions could have been higher on average by 3% in 2004, by 5% in 2005, by 8-9% in 2006, by 11% in 2007 and by 17-19% in 2008, compared with the actual one. Lithuania lost public goods and service in amount of 26,04 Lt per capita in 2004, 43,9 Lt per capita in 2005, 73,22 Lt per capita in 2006, 115,23 Lt per capita in 2007 and 23,82 Lt per capita in 2008.The evaluation of the indirect impact led to the conclusion that in the absence of pension funds, Lithuania could have experienced higher GDP and wage growth rates. Employment growth rates would have been higher only in 2004. During the next periods employment growth rates would have been even slightly lower, compared with the actual rates. The results demonstrate, that larger amount of money placed in the real economy would not have created new jobs and would not have led to higher employment. Inflation rates during the whole period of assessment would have been significantly higher, compared with the actual rates. Accelerating inflation would have reduced the real consumption opportunities of retirement pensioners and of the insured. If this would have been the case, real savings and real value of assets were about to decrease, creating huge instabilities in financial and real sectors of Lithuanian economy. After all, old age pension would have been higher only by the amount of direct losses. The main conclusion of the paper: pension funds provided an opportunity to transfer surplus money stock from the real economy into financial sector, thus helping to create more stable macroeconomic environment. Overall pension funds have had a stabilizing effect on the Lithuanian economy. This is the first paper in the forthcoming series of studies in search for a macro econometric model for old-age pensions in Lithuania. The results will be revisited, refined and compared by applying different modeling techniques. [text from author]