Netolygios regionų plėtros analizė

LTStraipsnyje analizuojamos esminės Lietuvos regionų diferenciacijos problemos 1996-2001 metais. Apibūdinami pagrindiniai tarpregioninės diferenciacijos modeliai ir metodai, taikomi užsienio šalių autorių. Regionų socialiniai ekonominiai išsivystymo skirtumai analizuojami remiantis apskričių sukuriamo BVP vienam gyventojui, parduotos pramonės produkcijos vienam gyventojui, eksportuotos produkcijos vienam gyventojui ir tiesioginių užsienio investicijų vienam gyventojui apskrityje dinamika. Atotrūkiams tarp regionų įvertinti taikomi labiausiai paplitę metodai: standartinis nuokrypis ir variacijos koeficientas, Lorenco kreivė ir Džini koeficientas, Teilo koeficientas. Remiantis regionų ekonominės diferenciacijos procesais Lietuvoje, kiekybiškai įvertinami svarbiausi veiksniai, turintys lemiamą įtaką regionų divergencijai. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Regionų plėtra; Konvergencija; Divergencija; Stratifikacija; Development of regions; Convergence; Divergence; Stratification.

ENUnder conditions of reform the socioeconomic situation of separate regions in Lithuania has appeared to fall under the influence of a set of new factors. These include: the rate and scale of economic transformations; the development of market sectors; geographical position; foreign economic co-operation; the mutual relationship of each separate region with the central government; and ability to adapt to new conditions and to make good use of them. All these factors have promoted the growth of regional differentiation. Therefore the researchers aim to analyse the processes occurring in the given sphere by estimating the basic parameters of the process of inter-regional stratification and also by determining the major factors forming its dynamics. We have carried out an estimation of the process of differentiation using four parameters: per capita gross regional product; per capita production of regional industry; per capita regional export; and per capita FDI in separate regions. The most widespread method of the measurement of the size of regional differentiation is the variance factor, also the Gini coefficient is widely used. A class of indices of generalised entrophy is less popular though it has a number of desirable properties: for example, unlike the Gini coefficient, it is sensitive to moving from the bottom part of the distribution to the top. Close in character to entrophy factors is the Teil coefficient also used for inter-regional comparisons. Quantitative estimation of the influence of various factors of the development of the process of inter-regional differentiation was carried out on the basis of regression analysis. As explanatory variables the researchers use the deviations from the average regional indicators.The set of the factors used as regressors reflects objective conditions, which were formed in the region and also the results of economic transformations occurring in the process of the reforms. Investigation of the scope of regional convergence and factors predetermining them can present such conclusions. Annually increasing curvature of the Lorenz curve illustrates the growing gap between the regions based on GDP for one resident. It must be noted that increasing divergence between the regions is uneven. It significantly correlates with the economic cycles. Industrial development in Lithuanian regions also goes on unevenly. Largest turnover in the industrial production is observed in Kaunas, Telšiai and Vilnius regions. Direct foreign investments concentrate in three regions; the remaining Lithuanian regions because of insufficient economic development and capital stagnation seem unattractive for investors. While analysing the influence of investments upon the regional development one must assess the ration of investments into physical and human capital. Currently it is very complicated to establish because the funds used for staff training and qualification improvement are included in to the working expenditures. Basing upon the analysis of the regional divergence indices according to the exported industrial production one can say that larger differentiation changes are going on in the advancing and in the lacking region groups. Factor analysis shows that the decisive influence in this trend is made by the part of exported industrial production in the total export volume. [From the publication]