Integruota įmonių bankrotų prognozavimo metodika

LTStraipsnyje įrodyta, kad įmonių bankrotai tampa nuolatiniu konkurencingos rinkos ekonomikos reiškiniu. Dabartinėmis sunkmečio sąlygomis nemokių įmonių skaičius nuolat didėja, todėl labai svarbu kuo tiksliau ir anksčiau įvertinti jų finansinę būklę ir veiklos tęstinumo tikimybę. Rekomenduojama integruota įmonių bankroto prognozavimo metodika, kurią sudaro šie elementai: 1) įmonės išorės ir vidaus aplinkos tyrimas, 2) absoliutinių finansinių rodiklių pokyčių vertinimas, 3) santykinių finansinių rodiklių skaičiavimas ir vertinimas, 4) bankroto prognozavimo modelių taikymas. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Absoliutiniai finansiniai rodikliai; Absoliutiniai ir santykiniai finansiniai rodikliai; Bankrotas; Bankroto prognozavimo modeliai; Santykiniai finansiniai rodikliai; Absolute and relative financial indicators; Absolute financial indicators; Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy forecasting models; Relative financial indicators.

ENBusiness bankruptcy is the company's insolvent situation when a company cannot pay its debts and cannot continue conducting its business further. In the current difficult economic climate the number of insolvent companies is constantly growing. For example, in 1995 there were 37 Lithuanian companies declaring bankruptcy, in 2000 their number reached 415, in 2005-772 and in 2007-781.The majority of companies declaring bankruptcy include wholesale and retail business, building organizations and semi-manufacturing organizations. According to the legal formation, most of the companies declaring bankruptcy are shareholding companies and privately owned businesses. The areas of Vilnius and Kaunas are the most affected by bankruptcies and many business managers and owners are becoming the first initiators of bankruptcy declaration. Due to the increasing levels of business bankruptcy, there are growing economic and social problems within Lithuania. One of the most effective ways to evaluate the firm's financial situation and also to prevent bankruptcy is the financial analysis. Many Lithuanian and foreign authors suggest various methods on how to determine bankruptcy features within the business and how to predict them in order to prevent the bankruptcy.In order to predict upcoming bankruptcy, it is recommended to follow the integrated business bankruptcy forecasting methodology: 1. analysis of internal and external business environment; 2. examination of absolute financial indicators; 3. analysis of relative financial ratio; 4. application of bankruptcy forecasting models. This article examines all of the above-mentioned methods and explains in detail how to follow them successfully. [From the publication]

• Vadyba / Management
• Ekonomika / Economics