Ekonomikos ciklų įtaka VP portfelio formavimui

LTStraipsnyje nagrinėjama ekonomikos ciklų įtaka vertybinių popierių pelningumui. Analizuojama ekonomikos ciklų struktūra, taip pat kaip skirtingose ciklo stadijose kinta ekonomikos aktyvumas ir kaip tie pokyčiai veikia pasirinktų investicijų pelningumą. Atsižvelgiant į pasirinktus ekonominius rodiklius, bandoma prognozuoti būsimą ekonomikos aktyvumą. Siekiant suformuoti optimalų portfelį, analizuojama, kokie vertybiniai popieriai bei finansiniai instrumentai atspariausi ekonomikos nuosmukiams. Atlikus ekonomikos ciklų analizę ir nustačius, kokie veiksniai lemia vertybinių popierių pelningumą, toliau analizuojamos skirtingos pramonės šakos. Tuomet pasirenkama investavimo strategija, apsibrėžiamos investavimo ribos. Nagrinėjami pagrindiniai makroekonominiai rodikliai: BVP, nedarbo lygis, infliacija, palūkanų norma. Visi šie rodikliai lyginami tarpusavyje, nustatomi jų ryšiai su obligacijų, akcijų, žaliavų pelningumais. Nagrinėjant 20 metų JAV istorinius duomenis, bandoma įžvelgti tam tikras tendencijas. Siekiant didesnės portfelio diversifikacijos ir pelningumo, į jį įtraukiami perspektyvių pramonės šakų vertybiniai popieriai. Pagrindinis dėmesys formuojant portfelį skiriamas jo struktūros optimizavimui, įtraukiant alternatyvias investicijas, tokias kaip auksas, JAV vyriausybės obligacijos, kurios užtikrintų portfelio stabilumą ekonominio ciklo metu. Pagal gautus rezultatus atliekama lyginamoji portfelių pelningumo analizė, nustatoma, kokiomis proporcijomis efektyviausia formuoti portfelį (akcijos, obligacijos, žaliavos), bei įvertinama pasirinkta investavimo strategija. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Alternatyvios investicijos; Ekonomikos ciklai; Portfelis; Portfelis, vertybiniai popieriai; Pramonės šakos; Vertybiniai popieriai; Alternative investment; Economical cycles; Industry; Portfolio; Stock.

ENThe variety of investment’s instruments in contemporary stock market and changeable economical environment requires to be aware of those instruments and cycles of markets to be able to control the risk. When creating optimal portfolio of stock it is mandatory to create a strategy based on analyzes of change, investing period and the possible risk. This article analyses the influence of economical cycles on stock profitability. Also strategies of creating portfolio from various financial instruments are presented. The structure of economical cycles is analysed according to economical changes in different sessions of the cycle. When creating optimal portfolio the resistance of stock and financial instruments during economical recession are discussed. After revealing what factors influences stock profitability, various industry sectors are sifted trough. The strategy of investment is being chosen and the boundaries of investment limits are shown. This analyses orients around the main macroeconomic indexes: GDP, unemployment‘s level and interest rate. These indexes are being equalized, their relations with obligations, stock and commodities are presented. The main aspects are optimization of portfolio structure including alternative investments as gold and the USA government’s obligations which secure the stability of portfolio. Stock of perspective industry sectors are being put into portfolio on purpose to create the diversification and increase yield.Following sectors included information technologies, biotechnologies, alternatives energy technologies and finance. Valuating these sectors perspectives we can expect quite large yield, but standard deviation and risk quite big, because these companies refer to cyclical business companies. That‘s why important include in portfolio and defensive industry sectors, such as healthcare, consumer goods, utilities, companies which has doesn‘t have large debt and even economical slowdown are able to raise income. Defensive industry sectors and their business are quite resistant of economic slowdowns, because these sectors companies according to their production profile, producing firs need goods and services. These goods demand are little or inelastic for price, people expectations, their income and spending changes. So including in the portfolio defensive industry sectors stock and alternatives investments should give to this portfolio more stability and help protect from big investments worth decrease due economic and stock downturns. During the economical data analyses of 20 years period of the USA’s economy some tendencies are revealed. According to results of the research the comparative analyses of profitability of portfolios is presented. The proportions of stock, obligations and staple in the portfolio are determined. The chosen investment strategy is being rated. [From the publication]