Ekonominis aktyvumas ir makroekonominė politika : istorinis aspektas

LTRemiantis ekonomikos teorijos ir ekonominės politikos sąsaja, straipsnyje analizuojamos ekonominio aktyvumo ir stabilizavimo politikos koncepcijos, apžvelgiama ekonominio aktyvumo reguliavimo istorinė raida. Straipsnyje daroma išvada, kad įvairių ekonomikos mokslo krypčių nuostatų stabilizavimo politikos klausimais suartëjimà lemia pasaulinis ekonominio aktyvumo susijimas – globalizacija. Ji skatina, viena vertus, derinti ekonominės politikos atstovų veiksmus tarptautiniu mastu, kita vertus, didinti savaiminio prisitaikymo galias nacionaliniu lygmeniu. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Ekonominis aktyvumas; Ūkio subjektas; Stabilizavimo politika; Bendroji ekonominė pusiausvyra; Economic activity; Entity; Stabilisation policy; General economic equilibrium.

ENDiversity of economic activity and macroeconomic policy concepts, rise of new scientific theories, experience of the countries in regulating the behaviour of economic entities, and trends in globalisation of the economy are changing the conception of the stabilisation policy. Analysis of the historical development of the theories clarifying economic activity and stabilisation policy issues shows that, first, the current period of globalisation is characterised by convergence of the opinions of the representatives of different scientific trends in estimating the above phenomena. This is proved by the rise of a new neoclassical synthesis theory in the last decade of the 20th century. According to the models submitted by the representatives of this scientific trend, fluctuations in economic activity are not just optimal reaction of economic entities to shocks – they are also a result of inflexibility of nominal wages and prices. In descriptions of global interrelationships, different models and theoretical principles are being combined: Keynesian approach is applied for deve- loping models that support classical tradition, or, in contrary, modern Keynesians adopt the methods of research of new classics. By the way, along with the development of the science of macroeconomics, economists agree that – under unfavourable conditions, especially in case of recessionary shocks – enforcement measures of the state have favourable effects on maximisation of utility of economic entities. Monetary policy, like fiscal policy, is acknowledged as having weight not only in the process of stabilisation of economic activity but also in strengthening of self-regulation of the market. Second, changes in the global economy initiated a discussion about the viability of national economic policy when stabilising fluctuations in economic activity that spread through international channels.Sophistication of interrelations between macroeconomic indicators, and growing uncertainty under the conditions of technological progress and structural restructuring posed a challenge of how to stand out against fluctuations in economic activity in the environment when national economies get increasingly interdependent. Scientists examining the challenges posed by globalisation have raised two hypotheses: that of convergence of economic policy and that of divergence. The convergence hypothesis predicts the convergence of national economic policies and decreasing strength to overcome fluctuations of economic activity on their own. Growing openness of national economies and similar economic activity require co-ordinated actions, secured by international agreements, coalitions and other integrated formations. The better international co-ordination of economic policy, the less space is left for national economic policy, moreover, the strength of this policy becomes weaker. Stabilisation problems are addressed at the global level. Divergence hypothesis emphasises that globalisation increases the strength of national economic policy. This is determined by insufficient degree of convergence of the countries and the impact of the economic structure on the stabilisation process. Under the conditions of inadequate convergence of the countries, lack of clear criteria enabling to define the character and degree of internationalisation of economic policy, the major role is played by the mechanism of adaptation at the national level. It is especially important for small countries that do not carry out independent monetary policy but are strongly affected by fluctuations of economic activity spreading between the countries.Under the conditions of the fixed exchange rate, opportunities of application of stabilisation measures depend heavily upon the financial, price and wages policies pursued in the country. Another argument proving the increasing strength of national economic policy is that globalisation prompts changes in economic structure. Formation of efficient institutions helping to withstand competitive pressure and ensure mobility of labour force and capital as well as implementation of structural reforms is a prerogative at the national level. Therefore, taking the opportunity offered by international cooperation and coordination under the conditions of global economy, countries pass over a certain portion of their competence to international organisations, and their national power and strength to stabilise fluctuations in economic activity decrease. However insufficient degree of convergence, specific institutional design, structural reforms and distinctive management of resources determine a divergence trend visible in economic policy. Stabilisation problems are addressed at the national level. [From the publication]