Bendrojo vidaus produkto vienam gyventojui analizės metodika

• Mackevičius, Jonas
• Molienė, Ona

LTStraipsnyje nagrinėjama bendrojo vidaus produkto vienam gyventojui reikšmė vertinant šalies ekonominę ir socialinę raidą. Siūloma modifikuota Du Pont piramidinės analizės schema ir formulės, leidžiančios apskaičiuoti trijų lygių veiksnių įtaką šio rodiklio kitimui. Taikant tokią metodiką, atliekama veiksnių, dariusių įtaką Lietuvos bendrojo vidaus produkto vienam gyventojui rodiklio kitimui 2007 m., analizė. Taip pat analizuojami 2004–2007 m. Lietuvos ir kai kurių užsienio šalių (Latvijos, Estijos, Liuksemburgo ir JAV) bendrojo vidaus produkto vienam gyventojui rodikliai, palyginti su atitinkamais Europos Sąjungos šalių vidurkiais, ir šių rodiklių kitimą lemiantys veiksniai. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Rodikliai; Veiksnys; Kitimas; Analizė; Indicator; Change; Factor; Analysis.

ENThe key indicator that generalises functioning and development of the economic system of a country is gross domestic product (GDP). Manuals, monographs and scientific articles on macroeconomics present comprehensive aspects of the value, calculation, usage, etc. of this indicator. Much less attention has been devoted to the research of GDP per capita although the scope of its usage is very broad. GDP per capita may be successfully used when preparing specific variants of economic and social policy, carrying out different international comparisons and evaluating the performance of a particular economic policy. Moreover, this indicator is suitable for measuring labour productivity, efficiency of a time period worked, and other different aspects of social development. GDP per capita is usually calculated only by statistics institutions, however, a more thorough analysis has not been carried out. Taking into consideration the value of GDP per capita, it is important to be aware of the factors determining its dynamics, and how to measure the influence of these factors. In order to assess the influence of specific factors to GDP per capita, the authors suggest using a developed by them modified scheme of Du Pont pyramid analysis. Application of this scheme enables to evaluate the change of GDP per capita regarding the impact of three equal factors. Two factors are attributed to the firs-level factors: GDP per hour worked and a number of hours worked per employee. Three factors are attributed to the second-level factors: GDP per hour worked; number of hours worked per employee; share of the employees in the total number of the population.Five factors are attributed to the third-level factors: gross value added per hour worked; GDP to gross value added ratio; number of hours worked per employee; share of the employees aged between 15 and 64 in the total population; ratio between the number of all employees and those aged between 15 and 64. Analysis of GDP per capita dynamics in Lithuania in 2007, compared to 2000, showed the following: - in seven-year period the GDP per capita increased by about LTL 10.09 thou. (77.2per cent), i. e., by LTL 1.44 thou. (8.5 per cent) over every year on average; - the first level of pyramid analysis indicated that the greatest impact on the change of GDP per capita was made by the change of GDP per hour worked or labour productivity due to which that indicator increased by 53.9 per cent (6.4 per cent on average every year); - the second level of pyramid analysis indicated that the impact of the development of the latter factor was determined by two more factors, the most important of which is the change of the share of employees in the total population that raised GDP per capita by more than LTL 1.7 thou. Another factor – the change in the number of hours worked per employee – raised that indicator only moderately, i. e., by LTL 0.24 thou. This is a clear proof of how important is to exploit the working hours effectively; - out of five third-level factors, the greatest impact on absolute GDP per capita was made by the positive change of labour productivity by value added per hour worked which is equal to the change of GDP per hour worked and which raised that indicator by about LTL 8.1 thou. (about 54 per cent of all change).Comparative analysis of GDP per capita dynamics in Lithuania and in some foreign countries revealed that over the reference period between 2000 and 2004, GDP per capita in all the Baltic States (those states joined the European Union in 2004) increased by more than 9 per cent on average every year: 9.1 per cent in Latvia, 9.9 per cent in Estonia and 9.8 per cent in Lithuania. The change of GDP per capita in the Baltic States was especially significant in 2007, compared to 2006, and exceeded considerably the growth rates of the respective indicator of the US, Luxembourg, EU-15 and EU-27. According to the authors, the comparative analysis should not be limited solely to relative change of the indicator under consideration instead it should be related to differences of comparative bases of different countries and indicators of absolute change. To that end integral indicator should be used, i. e., absolute value of 1 per cent change which accumulates both absolute and relative changes. In 2007, compared to 2006, absolute value of 1 per cent change of GDP per capita in Lithuania was 134 PPS (Purchasing Power Standart) and lagged behind the EU-27 (236 PPS) and the EU-15 (265 PPS) averages. Meanwhile, the greatest 1 per cent “weight” of chain change in 2007 was that of Luxembourg (658 PPS), which was considerably higher than the respective indicators of US and EU-15. The key aim in economic development of Lithuania, like that of other new EU Member States, is the average level of GDP per capita (by PPS) in EU-27 and EU-25, the trends in its dynamics. The authors suggest, on the basis of EU Statistical Office Eurostat data, to apply the GDP per capita pyramid analysis also in international comparative analysis. [From the publication]