Studijų proceso analizė taikant išlikimo analizės metodus

LTDidėjant studentų skaičiui universitetuose, didėja ir studentų „migracija" iš vienos studijų programos į kitą, iš vieno universiteto į kitą. Tokios tendencijos skatina įvertinti esamą situaciją ir ieškoti priežasčių bei sprendimų. Straipsnyje taikant išlikimo analizės metodus siekiama išsiaiškinti, kokie veiksniai (stojamasis balas, lytis, sesijų rezultatai) lemia studento išlikimą pasirinktame universitete ir pasirinktoje studijų programoje, o kas skatina nutraukti studijas. Tyrimui pasirinkti VPU Matematikos ir informatikos fakulteto matematikos ir informatikos dieninių bakalauro studijų programos studentai, į universitetą įstoję 2002-2004 metais. Studijų trukmės analizė buvo atliekama nuo 2002 m. rugsėjo 1 d. iki 2008 m. sausio 1 d. Buvo nagrinėtos 578 studentų (iš jų 318 moterų ir 260 vyrų) išlikimo galimybės. Stebėti studentai pagal stojamąjį balą suskirstyti į 3 grupes (žemas, vidutinis ir aukštas stojamasis balas). Nustatyta, kad moterys turi daugiau galimybių išlikti universitete. Skiriasi išlikimo funkcijos grupėse, sudarytose pagal stojamąjį balą: mažiausiai galimybių išlikti universitete turi studentai, kurių stojamieji balai yra žemiausi. Išlikimo funkcijos išlieka vienodos žemiausių ir aukščiausių stojamųjų balų grupėse, neatsižvelgiant į įstojimo į universitetą metus. Žemiausių stojamųjų balų grupėje moterų ir vyrų išlikimo funkcijos nesiskiria. Studentai, kurių stojamieji balai yra žemiausi, turi du kartus mažiau galimybių išlikti lyginant su tais studentais, kurių balai vidutiniai arba aukščiausi. Nagrinėjant abu veiksnius (lytį ir stojamąjį balą) kartu, lemiamas vaidmuo tenka studento lyčiai.

ENAn increasing number of students at universities and an increasing rate of' migration' both among universities and within a university (only 50 % of students finish Mathematics and Informatics study programme at Vilnius Pedagogical University, the faculty of Mathematics and Informatics) stimulates us to search for and analyze the reasons of such a motion. It is important to know whether a student who leaves the chosen study programme irresponsibly chose it, or whether his choice was determined by other factors. The fact that a student has chosen a wrong study programme becomes clear during the first year at the university. However, it is strange when a student leaves the university during the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th year. A substantial amount of money has already been invested into his studies and he must have comprehended the system of studies. Thus, it is crucial to reveal the main factors of risks and according to them adjust the study process. One of the possibilities allowing to answer the questions when, how and why the studies were interrupted is survival analysis described in D. Cox's works in 1972. It allows us to assess the moments of the greatest risk and distinguish its decisive factors. On the basis of survival analysis we were seeking to research life possibilities of Mathematics and Informatics study programme students at Vilnius Pedagogical University, the faculty of Mathematics and Informatics and to estimate which semesters are the riskiest, i. e. when there is the biggest possibility to drop out. We were also looking for the main decisive drop out factors. We presume that evaluation of these facts would allow to adjust entrance to the university, to organize the study process in a more efficient way, to forsee the motion of students as well as to look through the study programmes and improve the quality of studies.Bachelor's degree day-time study programme students of Mathematics and Informatics who entered the university in 2002-2004 were selected for the research. The analysis of the duration of studies was carried out from 1 September, 2002 until 1 January, 2008. Possibilities to survive of 578 stu- dents were analyzed. 318 women (55 %) and 260 men (45 %) participated in the research. The students observed were divided into 3 groups according to their entrance grade (1-low, 2-medium, and 3-high entrance grade). During the process of the research, life tables were created, survival function evaluations were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method, hypotheses were formulated and checked about survival functions among men and women in different entrance grade groups. Risk decisive factors were determined using Cox's proportional regression analysis. The main results and conclusions: 1. Survival functions among women and men are significantly different. Women have more possibilities to survive. 2. Survival functions in the groups distinguished according to the entrance grade are significantly different. The students whose entrance grades are the lowest have least possibilities to survive at the university. 3. Survival functions remain identical in the groups of the lowest and the highest entrance grades regardless of the entrance year. 4. Survival functions among men in the groups according to the entrance grade do not differ. 5. In the groups of the lowest entrance grade survival functions of women and men do not differ. 6. The degree of risk for men is twice as big as that of women. 7. The students having the lowest entrance grades have by half less possibilities to survive in comparison to the students whose grades are medium or the highest. 8. Taking into account both the factors (sex and entrance grade) the decisive role is played by the sex of the student. [From the publication]