Risk reflection in business valuation methodology

LTStraipsnyje analizuojamas rizikos atspindėjimas verslo vertinimo metodologijoje. Verslo generuojamų pinigų srautų prognozė ir kapitalo kaštai priklauso nuo rizikos, kurią patiria konkretus verslas rinkoje. Vertinimo kontekste riziką tikslinga klasifikuoti į sisteminę riziką (išorinę) ir nesisteminę riziką (vidinę). Sisteminė rizika nepriklauso nuo įmonės veiklos ir būdinga visiems finansinės veiklos dalyviams bei visoms finansinių operacijų rūšims. Nesisteminei rizikai priskiriamos rizikos rūšys, susijusios su konkrečios įmonės veikla. Rizikos dekompozicijos principu sudaryta rizikos ir riziką sąlygojančių veiksnių klasifikacija ne tik leidžia nustatyti įvairių lygių rizikos veiksnius, bet parodo šių veiksnių ir sisteminės bei nesisteminės rizikos ryšius. Yra du alternatyvūs rizikos atspindėjimo verslo vertės skaičiavimuose būdai. Pirmasis siejamas su rizikos atspindėjimu pinigų srautų apskaičiavimuose. Antrasis numato rizikos vertinimą diskonto normoje. Straipsnyje rizikos vertinimas diskonto normos apskaičiavimuose remiasi diskonto normos dekompozicija į jai įtakos turinčius skirtingų lygių veiksnius. Siūloma nuosavo kapitalo kaštus apskaičiuoti, prie nerizikingų vertybinių popierių palūkanų normos pridedant ekspertiškai nustatytus rizikos priedus už makroaplinkos veiksnius, šakos aplinkos veiksnius ir įmonės vidinės aplinkos veiksnius. Remiantis dekompozicijos principu sudaryta diskonto normos faktorinės analizės schema galima nustatyti riziką lemiančius veiksnius ir tirti šių veiksnių įtaką diskonto normai ir verslo vertei.Reikšminiai žodžiai: Verslo vertinimas; Rizikos klasifikavimas; Rizikos vertinimas; Business valuation; Risk classification; Risk valuation.

ENThis article is to investigate relevant and sophisticated problem concerned with risk reflection in business valuation methodology. The relevance and sophistication of risk reflection in business valuation methodology is affirmed by the discussions of scientists who analyse the problems of business valuation. Description, classification and valuation of risk within context of business valuation have several approaches in scientific literature. Presented classifications of risk are various and include various types of risk and factors determining risk. Considering variety of risk classifications it is suggested risk's classification based on decomposition of systematic (external) and unsystematic (internal) risks to the factors that have influence these kinds of risks. Factors of systematic risk are classified according to factors of macro environment and industry environment. Factors of unsystematic risk are divided into two groups: quantitative and qualitative factors. Classification based on approach of risk decomposition allows determining the factors of risk of various levels and also shows the connection between these factors and both systematic and unsystematic risks. The analysis of scientific literature shows that there is more than one approach to risk reflection in the business valuation methodology. Two alternative ways of risk reflection within the calculations of business value are mentioned in the works of different authors who re-search the problems of business valuation. The first one is related to risk's reflection in the calculations of cash flow and the second one allows risk valuation in the discount rate.Although various definitions of discount rate are given in scientific literature most authors de-scribe it as rate of return used to transfer free cash flow into current value. Discount rate is the company's financing source price which reflects time factor and risk in the calculation. According to this risk should be reflected in discount rate calculations within context of business valuation. Risk valuation in the calculations of discount rate is based on discount rate decomposition to different level factors having influence on discount rate. First level factors are cost of equity and cost of debt; second level factors are debt rate of return and equity rate of return; third level factors are interest rate, profits tax, equity rate of return; fourth level factors are risk-free rate, risk premium for factors of macro environment, industry environment and internal environment. It is necessary to evaluate narrowness of risk- return models appliance in practice of business valuation in Lithuania while deter-mining factors of one of discount rate elements - equity rate of return. According to this narrowness it is suggested to calculate cost of equity by summing up securities risk-free rate with expert's determined premium for risk for factors of macro environment, industry environment and internal environment Scheme of discount rate factorial analysis within context of business valuation created by the authors of this article allows envisaging relation between discount rate and these factors, also research influence of these factors on discount rate and business value. [From the publication]

• Ekonomika / Economics
• Vadyba / Management