Būsto kainų kitimo veiksniai ir banko elgsena Vidurio ir Rytų Europos šalyse

LTKodėl būsto kainų kilimas Vidurio ir Rytų Europos šalyse buvo staigus ir kokios įtakos tam turėjo bankų vykdyta skolinimo politika? Į šį klausimą bandoma atsakyti analizuojant bankų elgsenos pokyčius. Ekonometriniais metodais patikrinus būsto kainoms įtakos turėjusių veiksnių reikšmingumą, nustatoma, kad bankų vykdytos skolinimo politikos pokyčiai buvo svarbiausias būsto kainų kilimo Vidurio ir Rytų Europos šalyse veiksnys. Pakitus bankų elgsenai ir būsto paskoloms tapus palyginti lengvai prieinamoms, labai padidėjo būsto paklausa, o struktūriniai pasiūlos veiksniai beveik nepakito. Tai lėmė atotrūkio tarp būsto paklausos ir jo pasiūlos padidėjimą, o padidėjęs atotrūkis skatino spartų būsto kainų kilimą. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Būsto kaina; Kainų burbulas; Bankų elgsena; House price; Price "buble"; Bank's behaviour; Būsto kaina; House price; Prices bubble; Banks' behaviuor.

ENDynamics of real estate prices in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries attained much attention in the recent years. In this paper we try to evaluate the importance of fundamental factors that stimulated housing price growth. Analysis of structural and financial factors shows, that the latter had more pronounced impact on housing price growth thanks to changes in bank lending practice. Competition and smaller perceived risk associated to CEE countries, led to lower interest rates and application of softer credit standards (loan to collateral value and loan to income ratios, loan duration). This to a large extent increased affordability of housing for households that previously had no ability to participate in a housing market. Increased demand was not matched by adequate increase in supply because of administrative barriers and construction lags. In the first part of this paper we show how banks behaviour in changing loan to collateral value, loan to income ratios and interest rate affected equilibrium in housing market and subsequently housing price growth. In the second part we analyze those developments in a broader context: changes in macroeconomic conditions and structural market characteristics. We conclude our analysis by applying econometric specification to test the importance of financial and structural factors in explaining housing price dynamics in CEE.Banks maximize their profits while setting optimal loan to value, loan to income and interest rates. However this strategy would be optimal if no competition among banks and no trade-off between short and long-term profits exist. In this case each bank maximizes its profit permanently. If competition exists, bank might lower credit standards in order to have a higher market share and short-term profit. Thus initially bank has higher profit, but in a longer period of time quality of its assets deteriorates and on average its profit falls below its maximizing value, because of the impact bank’s behavior makes to the market. Lower loan to value and loan to income ratios prevailing in the market in turn increased availability of more households to take a mortgage loan. Given the restricted supply in a short term housing prices must rise. The magnitude of the process depends on structural factors of housing market. We explore those structural factors in a second part of our paper. We focus our attention on such factors like housing stock, housing ownership, existing barriers on supply expansion on the one side and structural demand driving factors like demographic developments, catch-up of income, falling unemployment, fiscal incentives and speculative activity on the other. Behind banks loan portfolio growth these factors add to final outcome of house price equilibrium setting.If supply, which depends on structural factors, is flexible enough, price appreciation will be contained. If not, prices will rise along with demand. Our analysis shows, that structural factors tended to hinder flexibility of the housing market in CEE countries, but housing price “bubble” is more likely to be associated with the changes in banks behaviour than other factors. Econometric specification supports our presumption that bank behaviour was among the most important factors behind appreciation of the housing prices in CEE countries. Easier credit standards (higher loan to value ratio, reduced requirements of household income, longer loan maturity) reflected by growing amount of loans for housing acquisition and falling interest rates contributed significantly to a surge of housing prices. Rising income also significantly contributed to housing appreciation. Finally, we found that previous house price movements had high explanatory power, i.e. the presence of self-fulfilling prophecy that rise in housing price will be followed by further appreciation. Although impossible to quantify, this could suggest that investment into CEEC real estate markets for speculative purposes was sufficiently high and that the “virtuous cycle” of housing appreciation could turn into “vicious cycle” of falling prices in most CEEC was buyers’ sentiment to change. [From the publication]