Emigracija iš Lietuvos: ką žinome, ko nežinome ir ką turėtume žinoti?

LTStraipsnis apibendrina esamas žinias apie gyventojų emigracijos iš Lietuvos mastus ir pobūdį, nagrinėja emigracijos priežastis ir siekia nustatyti žinių apie šį procesą spragas. Atlikti tyrimai rodo, kad emigracijos iš Lietuvos mastai yra didžiausi iš visų Europos Sąjungos (toliau ES) šalių. Daugelis autorių teigia, kad pagrindinis tai lemiantis veiksnys yra santykinai žemas darbo užmokesčio lygis Lietuvoje. Tačiau toks aiškinimas nėra pakankamas ir reikėtų ieškoti gilesnių struktūrinių problemų. Todėl straipsnyje pateikiama ir tikrinama alternatyvi hipotezė. Teigiama, kad sparčiai didėjanti aukštos kvalifikacijos specialistų pasiūla ir gerokai lėčiau – jų paklausa Lietuvos darbo rinkoje sudaro disbalansą. Įgytą kvalifikaciją atitinkančių darbo vietų stoka skatina kvalifikuotus specialistus emigruoti arba darbo rinkoje išstumti žemesnės kvalifikacijos asmenis, dėl to ir pastarieji emigruoja. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Emigracija; Gyventojai; Emigration; People.

ENEmigration is considered to be the most important non-military threat to Lithuania. It has considerable negative influence on demography, challenges Lithuania’s long term growth prospects, development of national cultural identity, etc. However, despite the increasing importance of the phenomenon, there are considerable knowledge gaps about the nature of emigration and the main reasons behind it. Hence, this paper seeks to review existing literature, analyze explanations of the phenomenon and identify areas for future research. Available statistical data indicates that approx. 10% of Lithuania’s residents have emigrated over past 16 years. According to Eurostat data, Lithuania also had the highest rate of emigration in the EU in 2005. Moreover, opinion polls indicate that this trend is likely to continue in the future. The most geographically mobile group consists of young university graduates who are entering the labour market. Most of the research done in this field explains high rates of emigration as a result of relatively low wage levels. The connection between these variables is based on the results of the opinion polls. However, this is subject to several criticisms. The opinion polls are excellent in revealing individual level push factors; however the design of the polls does not facilitate the analysis of systemic factors. Moreover, policy implications of this argument are not adequate. Accor ding to the logic of the argument the policy makers should sit still for a couple of decades until the real convergence between Lithuania and other EU Members takes place. However, this could lead to a low level equilibrium: high levels of emigration of qualified persons would retard Lithuania’s growth prospects, which would facilitate even higher levels of emigration, but would not lead to real convergence.In the face of the criticisms of established explanations we provide an alternative one. It focuses on the structural imbalances in the labour market. When the supply of highly qualified persons grows considerably faster than demand (number of high quality jobs), then: a) some of the qualified labour force emigrate after facing the failure of integration in the labour market; b) or take jobs that do not require high qualifications by suppressing the wage level and pushing out of the labour market persons with lower qualifications, which facilitates the emigration of the latter. The available statistical data indicates that the supply of university graduates has more than doubled over the past decade, but slow development of the knowledge intensive sectors failed to create considerable demand for the qualified employees. The result of these developments is high levels of emigration of young university graduates and considerable size of the pushing out effect. The policy implication of this argument is relatively straightforward: the problem of emigration should be tackled by facilitating the growth of the knowledge intensive sectors, which would generate higher quality jobs and reduction of the imbalances in the labour market. The paper also seeks to identify areas for future in the field of emigration from Lithuania. The key knowledge gaps include: lack of comparative studies that aim to explain why Lithuania has the highest level of emigration in the EU; lack of reliable statistical data regarding the structure of the emigrants. There is also a considerable lack of understanding of the labour market issues: what is the actual structure of the labour market? What about the supply and demand for specific qualifications? What policy tools are available for facilitating the creation of more and better jobs?. [From the publication]

• Politikos mokslai / Political sciences
• Sociologija / Sociology