Ekonominio nuostolio dėl Lietuvos darbo rinkos pokyčių įvertinimas

LTStraipsnyje nagrinėjami 1997-2003 m. Lietuvos darbo rinkos pokyčiai, mėginama įvertinti ekonominį nuostolį, kurį patiria šalies ūkis dėl nevienodo gyventojų, ypač jaunimo, užimtumo ir nedarbo kitimo. Ekonominis nuostolis matuojamas nesukuriamu BVP. Tyrimo rezultatai rodo, kad tarp šalies ekonomikos augimo ir darbo rinkos būklės nėra glaudaus ryšio, kad ilgą laiką Lietuvai buvo būdingas gyventojų užimtumo neskatinantis ekonomikos augimas. Be to, nustatyta, kad mažėjant jaunų žmonių užimtumui, mažėjo ir jų nedarbas, o dėl tokių darbo rinkos pokyčių nesukuriamas BVP vertintinas kaip ekonominis nuostolis. Visa tai rodo darbo rinkos problemų aktualumą ir jų sprendimo būtinybę. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Darbo rinka; Nedarbo lygis; Užimtumo lygis; Migracija; Ekonomikos augimas; Labour market; Unemployment level; Employment level. migration.

ENThe evaluation of economical loss caused by the changes in the labour market situation is a very important problem. The importance of the problem is determined by the increasing demand for the economical loss evaluation (not limited to statistical and sociological analysis of the data only), which arose after deterioration of the situation in the labour market. It is obvious that this kind of research is insufficient in our country. Very little research of the problem of the youth labour market conditions from the social and economical aspects has been carried out in Lithuania. The evaluation of specific economical loss caused by the unemployment of the youth is being missed. Therefore, the authors of the article analyse this essential scientific problem and represent concrete calculation results, their dimension and the impact on the social and economical indicators of the country. Another important and new aspect of the article is the fact that the results give us a possibility to compare economical loss necessitated by the general decrease in employment with the loss experienced in the age group of the youth. Although the theory of economics mainly emphasises the loss related to the unemployment and evaluates it by comparing real and natural unemployment indicators, the authors of the article highlight two different labour market components (employment and unemployment) when evaluating their impact on economical loss. It helps getting a more integrated view of the problem and revealing contradictions that may appear in the course of the research.The calculations in the article show that the national economy incurred a loss of LTL 1.4 billion in connection with the decrease of the youth unemployment in the period of 1997-2003. If the youth unemployment had been reduced, LTL 80 million of the GDP would have been generated. However, since a large part of the young unemployed people dropped out of the labour market, the national economic loss reached the unrealised gain of about LTL 1.4 billion. High unrealised profit restricted the GDP growth possibilities in the country. [From the publication]