Lietuvos makroekonometrinio modelio vizija

LTStraipsnyje apžvelgiami makroekonometrinių modelių kūrimo teoriniai ir metodologiniai klausimai, aptariami aštuonių šalių makroekonometriniai modeliai, sukurti centriniuose bankuose. Išrykinamos jų pagrindinės charakteristikos, struktūros ypatybės. Svarstomos Lietuvos makroekonometrinio modelio kūrimo Lietuvos banke kryptys ir perspektyvos, siūloma konkreti tokio modelio struktūra. [Iš leidinio]Reikšminiai žodžiai: Makroekonomika; Makroekonometrinis modelis; Centrinis bankas; Microeconomics; Microeconometrics model; Central bank.

ENSince central banks are responsible for the implementation of monetary policy, they are primarily concerned with macroeconomic research and analysis. In explaining how the economy fluctuates, central bank economists use various models (i. e., econometric, general equilibrium, etc.). A macroeconometric model is the formal, explicit macroeconomic model, consisting of identities and stochastic equations that explain the aggregate behaviour of the economy. It is usually applied in macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. The central banks of most Western countries have been using macroeconometric models since the late 1980s. The aim of this paper is to consider the development of a macroeconometric model at the central bank of Lithuania. In the first section of the paper, the theory of a macroeconometric model is reviewed. The second section presents a comparison of the macroeconometric models applied in the central banks of eight countries (England, Denmark, Korea, Malta, Netherlands, Slovenia, Finland and Germany). Various methodological alternatives of the Lithuanian macroeconometric model are described in the third section. At the end, the authors propose a preliminary structure of the macroeconometric model of the Lithuanian economy. The conclusions of the macroeconometric models overview are as follow: 1) theoretical foundation is usually eclectic (based on various economic theories).2) current versions of the models emphasise the theory of rational expectations; 3) every model discussed describes the main markets of the economy (labour force, goods and services, foreign trade, and financial markets); 4) the number and details of economy.s structural blocks differ; 5) technical parameters (the number of variables, equations, etc.) vary. Lack of economic data (most time series start only in 1995) and frequent structural changes during the transition are the main barriers for the development of the Lithuanian macroeconometric model. Nevertheless, it is suggested to develop the macroeconometric model of Lithuania because it is a widely used and helpful analytic tool. The key advantage of the macroeconometric model is its ability to represent the aggregate behaviour and dynamics of the economy in a systematic framework. On considering various methodological alternatives, it is proposed that the quarterly macroeconometric model of the Lithuanian economy be: 1) structural rather than VAR; 2) detailed enough so the economy is analysed thoroughly; 3) eclectic; 4) structured by the most important for analysis fields. The following are preliminary structural blocks: 1) Consumption and Investment; 2) Foreign trade; 3) Public finance; 4) Production and capital; 5) Wages and prices; 6) Employment; 7) Financial sector; 8) Identities. [From the publication]