Short and medium term dynamics and their influence on acquisitive crime rates in the transition states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
ENThe 1990s saw the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania change from centrally planned to more market oriented economies with associated societal transformations. Profound changes such as these create uncertainty and social instability that can lead to social problems including increased rates of crime and disorder. We report and comment upon Police recorded crime data that shows numbers of acquisitive and drug related crimes in the three states from 1993 to 2000. However the scale of economic change including the mediating effects of social institutions may vary from place to place within each state. Acquisitive crime is a phenomenon typical of urban or densely populated regions in the Baltic countries. Analysing regional variation in crime rates provides an opportunity to test whether negative socio-economic change impacts on rates for these crimes. Findings show weak evidence of the effect of social change on crime. Spatial statistical techniques and GIS (Geographical Information Systems) underpin the methodology employed. Keywords: regional variation of crime, medium and short term dynamics, GIS, regression, spatial statistics. [From the publication]
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