Nėra to blogo, kas neišeitų į gera? Reikšmingų įvykių įtaka viešosios politikos kaitai Lietuvoje 2004-2020 m.

• Bortkevičiūtė, Rasa
• Nakrošis, Vitalis
• Patkauskaitė-Tiuchtienė, Inga
• Vilpišauskas, Ramūnas

LTKodėl kartais net didžiulę žalą sukėlę reikšmingi įvykiai nesulaukia didesnio visuomenės, žiniasklaidos ar politikų dėmesio, o nedidelio masto ar keletą kartų pasikartojančios nelaimės išprovokuoja esminius viešosios politikos pokyčius? Remdamiesi originaliu teoriniu požiūriu, monografijos autoriai siekia atskleisti vis aktualesniu tampantį reikšmingų įvykių ir jų paskatintos viešosios politikos kaitos ryšį. Monografijoje pristatomas unikalus duomenų apie Lietuvoje 2004–2020 m. vykusius reikšmingus įvykius rinkinys bei suformuluojami po reikšmingų įvykių pasireiškiantys viešosios politikos kaitos keliai. Remdamiesi išsamia šių kaitos kelių analize sveikatos apsaugos, kibernetinio saugumo, aplinkos politikos ir vaiko teisių apsaugos srityse, monografijos autoriai pateikia išvadas dėl atsparumo būsimosioms sisteminėms grėsmėms ateityje didinimo ir atitinkamas rekomendacijas sprendimų priėmėjams. [Anotacija knygoje]

EN[...] The study “Resilience of welfare state institutions in Lithuania: the influence of significant events on adapting to systemic threats during 2004–2020”, funded by the Research Council of Lithuania, aims to determine the impact of significant events1100 on public policy, governance and institutional change in Lithuania during 2004–2020. Furthermore, it seeks to explain how these changes affect the adaptation of welfare institutions to systemic threats and to provide recommendations on strengthening their resilience. The design of the study was based on three key objectives: mapping significant events that took place in Lithuania from 2004 to 2020, developing pathways that connect significant events with policy change, as well as testing these pathways in four case studies of policy change induced by these events. First, by adapting the typologies of significant events presented in the scientific literature to the Lithuanian context, we provide the mapping of significant events in Lithuania from 2004 to 2020 with the aim of revealing the most significant cases for further analysis. Based on national legislation and considering the specificities of significant events in the country, we divide significant events into two main categories depending on their nature – natural disasters and anthropogenic disasters and incidents – and three main categories depending on their magnitude – low-impact/low-threat, medium-impact/medium-threat and high-impact/high-threat events. Natural disasters include all events caused by geographical and climatic forces, whereas anthropogenic disasters and incidents encompass various types of events caused by the malfunctioning of social-technical, political-administrative systems, as well as consciously hostile activities against the state.Furthermore, we suggest that significant events of low-impact/ low-threat include emergency events, those of medium-impact/medium-threat include municipal-level emergencies and events that have an impact at the level of organisations or their groups, whereas significant events of high-impact/ high-threat cover state-level emergencies and crises. We applied this typology to categorise our newly compiled original dataset of significant events in Lithuania from 2004 to 2020 (see the table below). Based on the results of this mapping exercise, as well as the trends of the most likely and greatest impact risks that could cause significant events in the future, we selected the following cases for our longitudinal analysis: 1. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent changes in the Lithuanian health system (four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020-2022); 2. Cyber incidents and attacks as well as related changes in the Lithuanian cyber security policy and institutional structure (cyber-attacks and incidents that took place in Lithuania and other countries, 2004-2020); 3. Cases of environmental pollution and subsequent changes in the field of Lithuanian environmental policy (ecological disasters caused by the Alytus tire processing plant “Ekologistika” fire and “Grigeo” wastewater scandal, 2019-2020). 4. Cases of violence against children and subsequent changes in the Lithuanian child rights protection system (the tragedy of Saviečiai, when a man threw two of his children into a well where they died, the so-called Matukas tragedy, when a four-year-old boy Matukas died from injuries caused by his mother and her partner and the scandal of Kručinskai family, when two children were taken from their parents after a passer- by reported the mother’s violent behaviour, 2016-2020).The theoretical framework of this study is based on public policy process literature, in particular Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), supported by the insights of recent research on crisis management. It brings together the independent variables (significant events, political, social and economic environment, governance capacity and legitimacy), intermediary variables (political, media and public attention, advocacy coalitions and leadership) and dependent variables (public policy, governance and institutional changes, as well as the adaptation of welfare state institutions to systemic threats). We relied on these variables to shape three main pathways of change (the ‘big bang’, ‘muddling through’ and ‘policy learning’) that could occur in the aftermath of significant events. [...]. [From the publication]