Population ageing as a sociodemographic problem in the Baltic Region

ENPopulation ageing is a major problem of European development in the 21st century. Rapid population ageing in most developed countries will continue to drive the dependency ratio up. This research aims to forecast the dependency ratio in the Baltic region until the end of the century. A more detailed population analysis and projections are provided for the case of the Baltic States - Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The authors use Bayesian probabilistic predictions based on data from the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Principle research methods include multifactor simulation modelling; some findings are presented on schematic maps. The study shows that by the end of the century the highest dependency ratio in the Baltic region will be observed in Poland, while Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden will also face significant challenges. The authors put forward demographic policy recommendations for those Baltic region states that will reach the highest dependency ratio by the second half of the 21st century. Key words: demographic forecast, population ageing, Baltic Sea region. [From the publication]

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