Scenarios of future land use
ENAgricultural systems supply a wide range of ecosystem services. Projecting future agricultural land-use changes is key to anticipating the potential impacts of human activities. In this work, we assessed future agricultural land-use changes, using the Dinamica- EGO platform, under three scenarios: A0-(business-as-usual), A1- (sustainable agriculture), and A2-(agricultural intensification) for 2040 in the Siauliai region (Lithuania). Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by using a Moran’s I index and the spatial patterns with the Getis analysis and landscape metrics. The results showed that croplands will increase 29.6% in the A0, 14.95% in the A1, and 29.63% in the A3 scenario. According to the Getis results, cold spots are in the surrounding of Siauliai city, and hot spots in the northeast of the Siauliai region. It was verified a high cropland fragmentation in A1 and low fragmentation in A0 and A2 scenarios. These results are critical for land management to understand cropland impacts under different scenarios. Keywords: Driving forces; land use/land cover (LULC); scenarios; Siauliai region; spatial planning. [From the publication]
- An overview of development of sustainable agriculture in Lithuania / Pranas Mierauskas. 11th international conference "Environmental Engineering". Vilnius: Gediminas Technical University, 2020. 8 p.
- Future scenarios impact on land use change and habitat quality in Lithuania / Eduardo Gomes, Miguel Inácio, Katažyna Bogdzevič, Marius Kalinauskas, Donalda Karnauskaitė, Paulo Pereira. Environmental research. 2021, 197, p. 1-18.
- Mapping and assessment of landscape aesthetic quality in Lithuania / Marius Kalinauskas, Katažyna Mikša, Miguel Inácio, Eduardo Gomes, Paulo Pereira. Journal of environmental management. 2021, 286, 112239, p. 1-16.
