EU and NATO enlargement: Russia’s expectations, responses and optionsfor the future
ENFor Russian policymakers no events in the post-Cold War period have hadmore momentous consequences or received greater public commentary, both before andafter they occurred, than the almost simultaneous enlargement of NATO and the EU thattook place in 2004. The most sensitive aspect of this ‘dual enlargement’ for the Russian Federation was the extension of these two organisations into the Baltic States, which hadbeen part of the Soviet Union itself. Despite some uneasiness, Moscow anticipated that theextension of the EU into the former Soviet sphere, even into the former Soviet Union itself,would constitute a generally positivedevelopment, while NATO penetration of that spherewould be extremely harmful. Accordingly, Russiavoiced little opposition to the EU’s plansand made only limited efforts to insure that its major interests would be protected, while itactively sought to forestall the NATO project, especially with regard to the Baltics. As itturned out, however, most of Russia’s expectations regarding the impact of these processeswere mistaken, and Russia’s interests were poorly served by its prior and subsequentresponses. [From the publication]
