Assessment of Vilnius city development scenarios based on transport system modelling and multicriteria analysis
LTStraipsnyje analizuojami trys susisiekimo sistemos požiūriu Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijai. Miesto plėtros scenarijai, kaip sutelktoji plėtra, decentralizuotai sutelktoji plėtra ir ekstensyvioji plėtra, vertinami daugiakriteriu metodu SAW ir atliekant Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijų modeliavimą 2015 m. ir 2025 m. Daugiakriteriu metodu nustatoma plėtros scenarijų prioritetinė eilė, vertinant Vilniaus miesto susisiekimo sistemos rodiklius. Modeliuojant plėtros scenarijų, nustatomi tokie rytinio piko metu rodikliai: kuro naudojimas, suminis nuvažiuotas atstumas, suminis kelionės laikas. Modeliavimas remiasi esamais ir numatytais bendrojo Vilniaus plano miesto gatvių tinklo duomenimis, transportinių rajonų dabartiniais ir prognozuojamais socialiniais bei ekonominiais duomenimis. Sukurtas modelis gali būti sėkmingai naudojamas vertinant transporto infrastruktūros ir eismo organizavimo projektų įtaką miesto susisiekimo sistemai. Reikšminiai žodžiai: miesto susisiekimo sistemos, gyvenamųjų teritorijų plėtra, susisiekimo sistemos modeliavimas, daugiakriterė analizė. [Iš leidinio]
ENThe paper describes the assessment of 3 Vilnius city development scenarios according to transport system parameters multi-criteria analysis and performing transport system modelling for 2015 and 2025 years. Vilnius city development scenarios such as concentrated development, extensive development and decentralized concentrated development have been evaluated from a transport viewpoint. Vilnius city development scenarios have been evaluated by using SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) multi-criteria method. According to this method development scenarios ranking calculations have been performed using transport system indicators. Urban transport system analysis model was developed for Vilnius conditions, which estimates the fuel consumption, average travel distance and driven time by car in morning peak hours depending on urban areas development scenario and socio-economic data. This model should be used when calculating new projects of the transport infrastructure (by-passes, new bridges) and when evaluating the economic efficiency of traffic organization projects. Keywords: urban transportation, sustainable transport, urban areas development, transport system modelling, multicriteria analysis. [From the publication]
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